An increase in forecasts for the harvest and exports of wheat from Canada lowers quotes in the US

Wheat quotations on world exchanges remain under the pressure of a significant volume of offers and low demand from importers. In the December report, the MSG of Canada increased the forecast of wheat production in the country in 2023/24 MR by 2.2 to 32 million tons (34.3 million tons in the previous season), and the export forecast - by 1.9 to 23.2 (25, 7) million tons

This news had a negative impact on the US wheat market, whose exports on December 12, according to the USDA, amounted to only 8.926 million tons, which is 28% less than the 11.44 million tons shipped on this date last year.

March futures fell yesterday:

• by 2% to $226.7/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 2.4% to $230.7/t - for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 1.3% to $265.1/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis.

Meanwhile, on the Paris Euronext, wheat futures rose by 0.5% yesterday to €224/t or $250.7/t.

Saudi Arabia's state food procurement agency GFSA (formerly SAGO) tendered 1.353 million tonnes of mostly Russian wheat with a protein content of 12.5% for February-May delivery at an average price of $284.57/t C&F.

Egypt's GASC will this week hold an international tender for the purchase of wheat for delivery in February, which will be an indicator of prices in the near term.

China, according to the State Customs Service, this year reduced wheat imports compared to the corresponding period in 2022 by 29.4% to 11.5 million tons (against the USDA forecast of 12.5 million tons), of which 660,000 tons were delivered in November ( 1.01 million tons in November 2022).

Ukraine is increasing the pace of exports, and in 15 days of December it shipped 593,000 tons of wheat, which is 10% less than last year's figure. In total, 6.5 million tons of wheat were exported in the season, which is 14% less than last year's pace.

Purchase prices for wheat continue to rise, but traders are mainly interested in fodder wheat, the prices of which reached $155-156/t or UAH 6,200-6,300/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.