ABARES raises Australian wheat, barley and rapeseed production forecasts to near record levels, putting pressure on prices

Experts from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resources and Economics (ABARES) in a quarterly report released on December 2 raised production estimates for all winter crops due to better-than-forecast rainfall in major grain-growing areas.

Harvesting is underway in all states, with yields in northern New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia well above the annual average.

Compared to September estimates, the forecast for winter grain production in Australia in 2025 has been increased by 7% to 66.3 million tonnes, which will exceed the 10-year average by 33% and will be the second highest figure in history.

Winter crop production in Western Australia is expected to be the second largest on record, with total winter crop production in South Australia 63% and Victoria 17% higher than last year.

Thus, the wheat production forecast has been increased by 5.3% to 35.6 million tons (34.111 million tons last year), which will be the third largest wheat harvest in Australia after 40.5 million tons in 2022/23 MY and 36.2 million tons in 2021/22 MY.

Recall that in November, the USDA raised its wheat harvest forecast from 34.5 to 36 million tons.

The barley production forecast has been increased by 7.5% to a record 15.7 million tons (USDA estimates it at 15 million tons), which will exceed the 2024/25 MY harvest by 19%, as well as the previous record of 14.65 million tons in the 2020/21 season.

The rapeseed production forecast has been increased by 12.5% to 7.2 million tons (USDA estimated it at 6.7 million tons in November), which will exceed the previous season's figure (6.1 million tons) and the 10-year average (4.8 million tons) by 18% and will become the second largest figure in the entire history of observations after 8.44 million tons in the 2022/23 MY.

Australia is one of the world's largest producers and exporters of grain, so an increase in crop forecasts this week will increase pressure on futures prices and on prices in Ukraine.