Prospects for soybean processing in Ukraine in the second half of the 2024/25 MY remain rather pessimistic, - believes APK-Inform

The pace of soybean processing in Ukraine remains quite high, - reports APK-Inform. In February, the volume of processing increased by 27% compared to January to 320-330 thousand tons, which is a monthly maximum. In total, a record 1.45 million tons of soybeans were processed in the 2024/25 MY, which is 57% higher than the corresponding figure in the 2023/24 MY and 43% higher than the previous maximum for the first half of the season - 1 million tons, set in the 2019/20 MY.

The increase in processing volumes is due to the transition of large factories to soybeans due to the shortage of sunflower on the market and the active export of soybean meal against the background of prices that are interesting for importers.

Overall, in the 2024/25 MY, the volume of soybean processing may reach 2.2-2.3 million tons, which will be about 36% of the total production of this crop (compared to 33-35% in the two previous seasons). At the same time, the share of soybean exports compared to previous seasons may decrease from 58-60% to 57%, despite an increase in physical equivalent.

However, the outlook for soybean processing in the second half of the 2024/25 MY looks much more pessimistic. The world market is expecting a record soybean harvest from South America, increased soybean processing in Argentina, and soybean meal supplies, the balance of which has already looked overstretched in recent years.

The US-EU tariff wars and China's tariffs on soybeans will keep global demand for Ukrainian soybeans high, which will contribute to an increase in exports rather than domestic processing.