Soybean processing in Ukraine in 2024/25 MY will be a record due to increased supplies to the EU

According to APK-Inform, in June, soybean processing in Ukraine decreased by 10% compared to May to 219 thousand tons, which still became a record for this period.

The reduction in processing is due to increased competition on the EU market from American products, as well as a decrease in prices for meal, which affects the profitability of processing. However, demand for products on the EU market, which is the main sales market for Ukraine, remains quite high.

During September - June 2024/25 MY, soybean processing in Ukraine reached a record 2.36 million tons (+41% compared to 2023/24 MY), and by the end of the season it may reach 2.66 million tons (+35% compared to 2023/24 MY). Recall that in 2024/25 MY Ukraine harvested 6.2 million tons of soybeans, of which 3.5 million tons were exported.

Exports of soybean meal in September-June 2024/25 MY increased by 82% compared to the corresponding period of the previous season to a record 1.07 million tons for the industry. At the same time, deliveries of meal to the EU increased by 51% to 889 thousand tons, which is 83% of the total export volume.

During the specified period, soybean meal exports to Poland increased by 28% compared to the previous season to 384 thousand tons, to Turkey - from 6 to 70 thousand tons, to Moldova - by 30% to 32 thousand tons, to Lebanon - doubled to 22 thousand tons.

Amidst difficulties with the sale of meal, processors in Ukraine have lowered the demand prices for soybeans to the level of 17,000-17,200 UAH/t with delivery to the plant.

Export demand prices for soybean meal are $275-285/t at ports, and offer prices are $300-320/t. Demand prices for soybean oil are $950-970/t, and offer prices are $1,000-1,050/t per FCA plant.

The introduction of a 10% duty on soybean exports may increase the volume of its processing in Ukraine, but the introduction by the European Union of duties on imports of soybean and rapeseed meal in response may negatively affect the prices of meal, and then soybeans in Ukraine.