Poultry deaths have reduced demand for corn in Egypt, which is the main market for Ukrainian corn.

Demand for corn in Egypt has fallen sharply due to a reduction in feed production caused by high poultry mortality, and the weakening of the Egyptian pound by 15-20% in recent days is further worsening the situation.

Low temperatures and diseases led to an increase in chicken mortality of up to 40%, and on some small farms even up to 60-70%, which reduced the demand for feed, after which feed mills began to buy corn on the domestic market in small batches. At the same time, due to the depreciation of the pound, domestic corn prices rose from 11,700 to 15,000 pounds/t.

However, prices are being pressured by the expected increase in supply, as large shipments of corn from South America, particularly Brazil, will soon arrive at Egyptian ports, which could lead to a temporary surplus of corn on the market.

At the same time, some traders hope for a quick resumption of imports, as the devaluation of the pound makes grain purchases profitable even against the backdrop of high world prices. At the same time, supplies of Ukrainian corn have sharply decreased after the outbreak of the war in the Middle East, as it is offered at $220-225/t FOB, while Argentine corn is offered at $206/t FOB.

Purchase prices for corn in Ukraine remain at $211-212/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, but hryvnia prices, amid the strengthening of the dollar exchange rate, have risen to UAH 10,500-10,600/t. Despite this, prices remain lower than last year's due to the record world corn harvest this season and increased competition with South American corn in the second half of the season.

In the 2025/26 MY, the volume of corn exports from Ukraine amounted to 11.9 million tons, while in the same period of the previous season, 14.9 million tons of grain were shipped.

In February, the main buyers of Ukrainian corn were Turkey (920 thousand tons), Spain (492 thousand tons), Italy (365 thousand tons), the Netherlands (280 thousand tons) and Egypt (236 thousand tons).

The war in Iran will reduce demand from Turkey, which sent part of the corn purchased in Ukraine to the markets of Iraq, Syria, Iran, and other Middle Eastern countries, while supplies to the EU will be limited by import quotas.