Falling corn prices increase pressure on wheat prices

2021-12-01 12:04:05
Machine translation
Falling corn prices increase pressure on wheat prices

In the wheat market, the number of "bearish" factors of influence is increasing, which increases pressure on quotes, especially given the forecasts of increased production in Australia and lower oil and corn prices.


Precipitation in the Black Sea region replenishes moisture reserves on winter crops and reduces concerns about the fate of the future crop. The good condition of winter crops in Europe further puts pressure on prices.


  • December European wheat futures on Paris ' Euronext fell another €7.5/ton to €279.5/ton or € 316.6/ton yesterday, losing 11.5% over the week, which increased pressure on Black Sea wheat prices.


As of November 28, the EU exported 12.1 million tons of wheat, which is 12% higher than last year's pace, but the forecast for wheat exports for this season has also been increased by 12% compared to the previous one to 36.5 million tons.


  • December Black Sea wheat futures on the Chicago SWOT are falling more slowly, and yesterday fell by 3 3.75/ton to.337.5/ton, losing only 3.2% in a week.


On the US stock exchanges, wheat quotes also fell by 2.2-4.5%, despite dry weather forecasts for the near future in the regions where winter wheat is grown.


December futures on US stock exchanges fell:

  • by 4.5% or 1 12.4 / ton to 2 284.3 / ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
  • by 4.4% or 1 12.86/ton to 3 300.9 / ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
  • by 2.2% or 8 8.18/ton to.374.8/ton for durum spring hrs wheat in Minneapolis.


In Ukraine, purchase prices for food wheat are falling following the world stock exchanges, and yesterday they fell in ports by 1 10/ton to 3 318-320/ton or UAH 9800-10000/ton, and a slight strengthening of the hryvnia after a long fall increases pressure on prices.


Russia as of November 25 reduced grain exports by 24.1% to 18 million tons compared to the same period, in particular barley – by 34% to 2 million tons, corn – by 14% to 0.6 million tons, wheat – by 23.1% to 15.3 million tons. to reach the USDA forecast of 36 million tons (38.5 million tons in 2020/21 MG) in the second half of the season, the country needs to ship almost 20 million tons of wheat, which will be difficult to do, especially given the winter decline export rates and a spring drop in demand from importers who are starting to harvest their own crops.

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