Rainfall in Brazil and dry weather in Ukraine and Argentina will put pressure on grain prices in the coming weeks

Traders have shifted their focus to weather conditions in South America and Australia, as countries in the Northern Hemisphere have already virtually completed agricultural work in favorable conditions.

In Ukraine, drier and warmer weather without frost is expected, which will allow farmers to complete the harvest of late crops and partially sow winter barley. Next week, weather without precipitation is forecast with temperatures above 0°C, but without sunny days. This will slow down the drying of soils and corn, which has not yet been harvested on 25% of the area.

The completion of the corn and sugar beet harvest will free up a significant portion of motor transport, which will increase grain supplies to ports and reduce speculative demand and prices in the domestic market.

In Brazil, heavy rainfall has fallen in the central and northern regions over the week, and the cyclone is moving south, where scattered, albeit less intense, rain is expected over the weekend and early next week. Heavy rainfall will continue in the north and center of the country next week. The market will focus on weather conditions in December, when soybeans and corn are in the middle of the growing season.

If December brings sufficient rain, expectations of a new record soybean harvest will increase pressure on quotes.

Argentina has seen scattered rainfall this week, with soil moisture generally remaining high, although southern regions remain drier. A front is expected to move in from the north over the weekend, bringing 5-15 mm of rain. Temperatures are holding near normal, which is conducive to soybean planting and crop development, but moisture loss continues, so an increase in rainfall in December is critical. Wheat harvest starts in December and promises to be much better than last year.

Australia has seen scattered rainfall in recent weeks, which is somewhat holding back the start of active wheat and canola harvesting, but improving conditions for cotton and sorghum planting. A similar situation is expected next week, although in some regions there will be insufficient moisture for planting.

In the US, several rain systems have moved through the Midwest and Plains this week, raising water levels and raising river levels, including the Mississippi, which is a major grain exporter. A new cyclone is forecast next week, bringing overnight lows of -5…-15°C in the northern Plains and snowfall, which will be beneficial for winter wheat.

Scattered rains will move across Europe in waves over the next week, creating favorable conditions for winter crops. Eastern regions have already received significant snowfall, so the condition of winter crops in most areas is assessed as good.