Rainfall in Argentina and Brazil improves outlook for soybean and corn crops

Increased rainfall in South America is boosting soybean and corn planting and improving crop conditions, adding pressure to quotes. Next week, rains will pass in the winter wheat growing regions of the USA, which will improve the condition of the crops. At the same time, the drought in Ukraine and the south-west of the Russian Federation is reducing forecasts of the future harvest.

 

In central Brazil, the rainy season is underway, and the rains are helping to accelerate planting and produce soybean seedlings that will be able to be planted at optimal times, so second-crop corn will also be planted on time. Next week, heavy rains will pass throughout the country, which will improve the prospects for the harvest. Therefore, Rabobank experts increased the forecast of soybean production in 2024/25 MR to 167 million tons (152 million tons last year).

 

Rains have been falling for two weeks in Argentina , improving the condition of wheat crops and accelerating corn planting, as well as replenishing soil moisture reserves ahead of soybean planting, which begins in November. Favorable rains for sunflower and corn crops are also expected next week.

 

Record soybean and corn harvesting rates in the US , driven by dry and warm weather, have led to a sharp increase in supply and a drop in prices. The Midwest and Plains received rain this week, which will continue into next week and improve moisture reserves and the condition of winter crops.

 

This year's weather is favorable for US farmers, but grain prices are very low. So, farmers in the USA are currently selling corn at the elevator for $150-160/ton, while in Ukraine it is $180/ton.

 

Water levels in the Mississippi, a major export route, remain low, slowing supplies and putting pressure on U.S. purchasing prices. An increase in the intensity of precipitation will raise the water level and speed up the operation of the river terminals.

 

Heavy rains in Spain led to floods and deaths, but significantly replenished moisture reserves and improved prospects for the future winter crop.

 

Dry weather is expected in northwestern Europe next week, which will speed up the corn harvest in France, which is currently threshed on only 35% of the area, compared to an average of 60-65%. At the same time, it will rain in the east of Europe.

 

In Australia, the weather is helping to fill wheat, barley and canola, but a lack of rainfall in some regions worsens the outlook for the harvest. Harvesting is picking up and the rainy season is coming to an end, but they have created good conditions for sorghum and cotton planting, which will begin in November.