Rainfall in the US, Europe and Ukraine reduces speculative weather pressure on wheat quotes

Good precipitation that has passed this week and will continue next week in the "corn" belt of the USA and in southeastern Europe will improve the condition of winter wheat crops and conditions for sowing spring crops, which has already led to a decrease in wheat exchange prices.

The Midwest and Delta regions received heavy rain over the weekend, and two storms are expected to bring additional rainfall later in the week. But the southwestern plains will see much less rainfall, supporting spring wheat prices.

Southern Europe also saw heavy rain, which is good for winter crops. This week, fronts will bring heavy rain to the north and east of the region. Overall, the weather is positive for winter wheat crops, but in the north-east, plants need more rainfall. Against the background of favorable conditions for sowing corn and other spring crops, analysts are raising production forecasts for the EU.

In eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia, winter crop crops are mostly in poor condition due to dry weather and low soil moisture. Last week, 2-10 mm of precipitation occurred in some regions, which accelerated vegetation against the background of high temperatures. In the next few days, a front from Europe may bring minor rains to northwestern Ukraine, after which another drop in temperatures and frosts are expected.

In central Brazil, heavy rains are helping the second crop of corn. The rains will continue next week, spreading to the southern regions. Overall, soil moisture in the country (except in the state of Mato Grosso) is below normal, which is negatively affecting the corn crop.

According to AgRural, as of March 23, soybeans in Brazil have been harvested on 77% of the planned area (+7% per week), which exceeds last year's pace (69%) and the 5-year average (67%). Harvesting is being completed in the central regions. Thus, in the state of Mato Grosso, 99.4% of the planned area has been threshed (98.5% last year, 97% on average for 5 years), and in Paraná – 81% of the area.

Argentina has had showers throughout the week, favorable for late soybean and corn plantings, which will delay harvest somewhat.