Rainfall improves wheat crop condition, continuing to put pressure on prices

Wheat prices rose 2-3% on Friday after the start of open war between Israel and Iran, but fell again on Monday, falling by 0.3-1% overall for the week amid favorable weather in the US, the EU, and the Black Sea region.

 

According to the USDA's weekly report, thanks to favorable precipitation in the United States, the number of spring wheat crops in good or excellent condition during June 9-15 increased by 4% to 57% (76% last year). But rains are delaying the harvest, so winter wheat was threshed on only 10% of the area (25 last year and 16% on average for 5 years), and the number of crops in good or excellent condition decreased by 2% to 52% during the week (49% last year).

 

Additional precipitation will fall in the US this week, but it will end by the weekend, and temperatures will reach 30-32 ^° C, which will accelerate the harvest of winter wheat.

 

July US wheat futures fell yesterday:

• by 1.4% to $197.1/t for SRW wheat in Chicago (-1% for the week),
• by 0.9% to $197/t for HRW wheat in Kansas City (–0.3%),
• by 1.9% to $228.8/t for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (0%),
• by 1.3% to €200.25/t or $231.4/t September wheat futures on the Paris Euronext exchange (–0.7%).

 

According to FranceAgriMer estimates, in France, the number of soft wheat crops in good or excellent condition increased by 1% to 70% in a week.

 

In the southwest of the Russian Federation, good precipitation and low temperatures are forecast this week, which will continue to improve the condition of crops, increase pressure on prices for the old harvest and slow down exports. For 15 days of June 2025, wheat exports from the Russian Federation amounted to only 0.565 million tons, which is 4.8 times less than a year ago.

 

Wheat exports from Ukraine for 16 days of June amounted to 0.533 million tons, and in total for the season reached 15.43 million tons, which is 17.5% lower than last year's pace (18.12 million tons).

 

During the week in Ukraine, export and purchase prices for wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports decreased:

• for food wheat - by $3-5/t to $217–220/t or UAH 10,200–10,350/t,
• for feed - by $3-5/t to $208-212/t or 9900–10,000 UAH/t.

 

Prices for new crop grain remain at $206-210/t for food wheat and $198-200/t for feed wheat, and southern farmers are actively selling it under forward contracts, expecting a good harvest and further price declines.

 

According to analysts, world wheat prices could fall by another 10% under the pressure of a good harvest in importing countries, which will be very slow to buy new crops in anticipation of a further decline in world prices.

 

The Tunisian Grain Agency (ODC) held a tender on June 13 to purchase 75,000 tons of soft wheat, receiving offers from 17 companies at a price of $243-276.03/ton C&F. As a result, 100,000 tons of wheat were purchased at an average price of $244.51/ton C&F with delivery from July 1 to August 10, 2025.

 

Algerian state-owned company OAIS will hold a tender on June 17 to purchase at least 50,000 tons of milling wheat of any origin, which will show the price level that importers are willing to pay.