Updated world balances have not identified the trend for corn prices

2018-11-09 12:05:08
Machine translation
Updated world balances have not identified the trend for corn prices

yesterday's Data report USDA almost matches the previous forecasts of the analysts with the exception of indicators for China.


Experts USDA have taken into account the new data of Chinese statistics and increased production estimates and balances, but left unchanged the forecast of import of corn. Bureau of statistics of China published information on stocks and consumption of corn in China, so the performance of the new balance by the USDA determined on the basis of official estimates of production and imports in recent years.


Due to the deterioration of yield estimation of corn production in the US decreased by 3.85 million tonnes in the EU – 1.5 MMT that can be compensated by increasing corn harvest in Ukraine by 2.5 million tons and Argentina-1.5 million tons, as predicted by experts.


Due to increased production in China from 225 to 256 million t forecast of the world corn harvest increased by 30.64 million tonnes, Carryover stocks through the change of indicators for China increased from 198,21 to 340,92 million tonnes at the beginning of the season and 159,35 to 307,51 million tonnes at the end of the season.


Traders expect rising prices after cutting production forecast for the United States and the increase in the valuation of imports into the EU from 19.5 to 21 million t. However, data from China confused market that quotes in Chicago remained unchanged at the level of 146,69 $/t


Export sales of US corn for the week rose by 77.8 per cent to 701,5 thousand tons and exports of up to 1.3 million tonnes, which is further supported prices.


Forecast exports to Ukraine increased by 2 million tonnes to 27 million tonnes, with increased estimates of production to 33.5 million tonnes.


corn Exports from Ukraine in the current my totaled 2.8 million tons, exceeding last year's level. Price drop to 160 $/MT FOB has increased the demand, so that prices for delivery in January-February rose slightly.


in the Hope of a drop in corn prices after the publication of the report USDA South Korean refiners suffered a procurement tender. However, the prices of U.S. corn will soon grow by a decline in production, so the demand for cheap Ukrainian corn could increase, which further will contribute to the growth of corn imports in the EU, which is the traditional buyer of Russian grain.

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