Updated projections of the wheat harvest in the season 2021/22 have fallen off the price

2021-03-26 12:02:28
Machine translation
Updated projections of the wheat harvest in the season 2021/22 have fallen off the price

After the promulgation of the new predictions of wheat production in 2021/22 Mr in the world, Europe and Russia, the price of wheat yesterday significantly decreased.


estimated IGS, in 2021/22 MG global wheat production will increase in comparison with the current season of 6.1% to 790 million tonnes.


the European Commission raised its forecast of production of soft wheat of the EU-27 in 2021/22 MG of 126.7 million tons, and the forecast of its exports is up to 30 million tonnes, which is 9.6 million tonnes and 3 mln tonnes respectively exceed the performance of the current season.


ICARUS, the Agency increased the forecast of wheat production in Russia next season with 78 to 79.5 million tons and estimate exports – from 38.5 to 39.5 million tons


New forecasts along with lower prices for Russian wheat to $260/MT FOB for April and to $250/MT FOB for may deliveries resulted in a dramatic collapse in stock prices.


In Ukraine on the background of falling prices for Russian wheat exporters lowered the purchase price at the ports of 300-400 UAH/t to 7500-7780 UAH/t or 235-245 $/t, and processors – to 7400-7500 UAH/t with delivery to the plant.


the Paris market by forecast IGS relative to the record production of wheat in the new season, responded with a decline of 2.5-month minimum. Very weak export demand failed to support the market.


  • the May futures for milling wheat on MATIF fell by 42.5 €/t to 214 €/t or 252,13 $/t


American stock exchange yesterday traded under pressure from the powerful bearish factors.


According to the monitoring USDA drought in the major agricultural regions of the American plains dramatically decreased, which will soon lead to the improvement of winter wheat.


Export sales of wheat from the U.S. last week fell by 12% to 343 million tonnes, but only in the season made up of 24.85 million tonnes, which is 0.5% higher than last year's pace. Actual exports for the week was quite high 659 thousand tons, but only in the season reached 19.4 million tons.


May futures declined:

  • for 4,50 $/t to near 3-month low 225,05 $/t for SRW soft winter-wheat in Chicago,
  • by 3.49 $/t to 208,24 $/t for solid winter HRW wheat in Kansas city,
  • by 3.49 $/t to 226,89 $/t on a firm spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.


the Strengthening of the dollar against the 4-msasage high also had a negative impact on quotes.

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