Overview of the Ukrainian grain market from Spike Brokers
Over the weekend, Polish farmers blocked the border with Ukraine for 2 days, protesting against the agreement between the EU and MERCOSUR countries. They plan to hold the next action on December 10, but will extend it to the entire eastern border of Poland.
As of November 28, 10.22 million tons of sunflower (from 97% of the area), 6.01 million tons of soybeans (99%) and 24.16 million tons of corn (96%) were harvested in Ukraine. At the same time, 4.383 million hectares (98% of the planned areas) were sown with winter wheat, 0.611 million hectares (96%) with barley, 1.0814 million hectares (96%) with rapeseed.
From November 1 to 27, Ukraine exported:
- corn - 2.243 million tons,
- wheat – 1.038 million tons,
- barley - 149.4 thousand tons,
- soybeans - 429.9 thousand tons,
- rapeseed – 315.4 thousand tons,
- sunflower - 1.1 thousand tons,
- sunflower oil - 400.6 thousand tons,
- soybean oil – 36.1 thousand tons,
- soybean and sunflower pulp - 343.1 thousand tons.
Sales this week:
- corn DAP north. Italy / delivery in December 233 €/t,
- corn DAP Odesa / delivery in November - December $198/t,
- sunflower oil DAP Odesa with delivery in December $1,112/t.
From January 1 to April 30, 2025, Turkey will abolish the 8% duty on sunflower imports within the established quota and reduce the duty on out-of-quota imports from 27% to 12%, while leaving the duty on sunflower oil at 20%.
Corn
Differences in price trends appeared on the foreign market. The EU market will be saturated until February, which will lead to lower prices for late delivery periods. The absence of premiums for late deliveries indicates the uncertainty of the market regarding further price trends. At the ports and borders of Ukraine, traders pay premiums for fast deliveries to close expensive contracts. But a further decline in international activity will lower purchase prices.
Indications of buyers:
- DAP Odesa - $196-198/t,
- DAP Ukraine Danube - $198-202/t,
- DAP Ukraine (border) – 180-182 €/t,
- FCA Ukraine (border) – 192-194 €/t,
- DAP North Italy – 228-232 €/t,
- DAP school Germany – 210-215 €/t,
- DAP Netherlands (center) 205-215 €/t.
Wheat
Buyer activity is low on the foreign market, and almost non-existent on the domestic market. Buyers are only interested in high-protein wheat, but demand for feed grain is low.
Indications of buyers:
- DAP Odesa protein 11.5% - $208-2128/t, fodder - $203-204/t,
- DAP North Italy fodder - 220-225 €/t.
Sunflower
Last week, sunflower oil fell by $50/t to $1,110-1,115/t for delivery in December. The foreign market is saturated with oils and products of their processing. Meal on the DAP - the border with Poland became cheaper by $15-20/t to $210-215/t, and in the ports it was traded at $190/t (non-granulated) and $200/t (granulated). Processors have stocks of raw materials for 1-1.5 months, and against the background of the fall in world prices for meal and oil, prices for sunflower (with an oil content of 46% on dry matter) have dropped to UAH 24,000-25,500/t with delivery to the plant. As prices decrease, the number of sunflower offers increases.
Indications of buyers for sunflower:
- DAP Ukraine (plant) 46% on dry matter - $510-540/t,
- DAP Bulgaria 44% for raw material - $600-610/t,
- CIF Bulgaria (port) 44% for cheese - $590-600/t.
Soy
The EU market is saturated with soybeans, and factories have stocks of raw materials, so the demand for soybeans is low. In Ukraine, farmers hold back soybean sales in anticipation of better prices.
Buyers' indications for GMO soybeans:
- DAP Odesa - $384-387/t,
- DAP North Italy (wagons) – 395-400 €/t,
- DAP North Italy (auto) – 405-410 €/t.
Indications for non-GMO soy:
- DAP Odesa – $425-430/t,
- FCA Ukraine (border) – 400-405 €/t,
- DAP Hungary (center) – 435-440 €/t,
- DAP North Italy – 435-440 €/t.
