Overview of the Ukrainian market from the brokerage company Spike Brokers

The company Spike Brokers has published its overview of the Ukrainian market and the demand prices for Ukrainian grain for the previous week.

 

As of November 21, 10.07 million tons of sunflower (from 97% of the area), 6 million tons of soybeans (99%) and 23.62 million tons of corn (94%) were harvested in Ukraine. At the same time, 4.38 million hectares (98% of the planned areas) were sown with winter wheat, 0.61 million hectares (96%) with barley, 1.0814 million hectares (96%) with rapeseed.

 

From November 1 to 20, Ukraine exported:

• corn - 1.708 million tons,
• wheat - 796.1 thousand tons,
• barley - 66.3 thousand tons,
• soybeans – 357.1 thousand tons,
• rapeseed – 264.8 thousand tons,
• sunflower - 0.8 thousand tons,
• sunflower oil - 307 thousand tons,
• soybean oil - 24.8 thousand tons,
• soybean and sunflower pulp - 242.1 thousand tons.

 

In 2024/25 MR (as of November 1), the European Union imported 7.6 million tons of corn, which is 11% ahead of last year's pace. During the week, the share of Ukraine in total imports increased from 47.3% to 49.7% (46.3% last year), while the share of Brazil fell from 20.3% to 19.4% (40.1%) and the USA - from 17.5% to 16.6% (1.3%).

 

Corn

Against the background of a significant volume of offers, the demand for corn on the foreign market remains low, which increases the pressure on prices. In Ukraine, the fall in corn prices stopped due to a reduction in offers from producers.

 

Indications of buyers:

• DAP Odesa – $194-196/t,
• DAP Ukraine Danube - $198-201/t,
• DAP Ukraine (border) – 175-178 €/t,
• FCA Ukraine (border) – 188-190 €/t,
• DAP North Italy – 225-230 €/t,
• DAP school Germany – 225-230 €/t,
• DAP Netherlands (center) 220-225 €/t.

 

Wheat

The increase in MATIF futures did not affect the EU physical market, where prices remained almost unchanged during the week, as demand remains low amid significant supply. In Ukraine, wheat prices have decreased somewhat, and producers have started to hold back sales, but buyers are not ready to pay more due to strong competition on the world market.

 

Indications of buyers:

• DAP Odesa protein 11.5% - $206-208/t, fodder - $20-202/t,
• DAP Romania (port) fodder – $212-214/t,
• DAP North Italy fodder - 220-225 €/t.

 

Sunflower

During the week, processors lowered their purchase prices for sunflower under pressure from lower vegetable oil prices, but processors are in no rush to sell seeds, even with the risk of further price declines, as raw material stocks at factories are limited. The prices for sunflower oil in the ports of Odesa fell by $20-25/t during the week.

 

Indications of buyers for sunflower:

• DAP Ukraine (plant) 46% on dry matter - $560-570/t,
• DAP Bulgaria 44% for raw material - $630-640/t,
• CIF Bulgaria (port) 44% for cheese - $620-630/t.

 

Soy

Large shipments of soybeans from Brazil and the US continue to enter the EU market, and demand from processors is declining. In Ukraine, producers reduced soybean sales against the background of too low prices.

 

Buyers' indications for GMO soybeans:

• DAP Odesa - $384-387/t,
• DAP North Italy (wagons) – 395-400 €/t,
• DAP North Italy (auto) – 405-410 €/t.

 

Indications for non-GMO soy:

• DAP Odesa – $425-430/t,
• FCA Ukraine (border) – 400-405 €/t,
• DAP Hungary (center) – 435-440 €/t,
• DAP North Italy – 435-440 €/t.

 

Currently, the prices in Ukraine are:

• corn on DAP Odesa with delivery in November - December $197/t,
• wheat protein 11.5% on DAP Odesa with delivery in November - December $209/t,
• sunflower meal on the DAP border with delivery in February - March $222/t.