Overview of the main changes in the October IGC balances for grain and oil
The October IGC balances for grain and oil crops were almost unchanged compared to September estimates. The IGC's GOI Cereals and Oilseeds Price Index is also unchanged and still 11% higher than last year.
According to the IGC forecast, world grain production in FY 2022/23 will be 2.256 billion tons, which will be the second largest in history, although it will be 1% lower than the previous season. The decrease in production is due to the fall in the corn harvest in Ukraine, the USA and the EU. At the same time, world production of wheat, oats and barley will grow compared to last year.
The estimate of world consumption against the background of a sharp reduction in feed consumption and industrial use was reduced by 3 million tons to 2,271 million tons, which will significantly exceed the average level. The global trade forecast was reduced by 4% compared to the previous season to 408 million tons, in particular corn – by 8 million tons (mainly for supplies to Asia), sorghum – by 3 million tons (for supplies to China), wheat – by 4 million t (supplies to Egypt and China). Closing stocks, declining for the 6th year in a row, will decrease by 3 million tons to 584 million tons.
The forecast of global soybean production in 2022/23 was reduced to 386 million tons compared to the September report, which will be 9% higher than the previous season, as the increase in the forecast for Brazil does not compensate for the decrease in the USA and India. The estimate of initial reserves was increased by 1 million tons to 54 million tons (46 million tons last year), the forecast of world imports - by 1 million tons to 166 million tons (+7% for the year), and world trade - by 10 million tons, but it will still be inferior to the record figure of 2019/20 MR.
The estimate of world rice production in FY 2022/23 was reduced by 3 million tons to 505 million tons (-2% for the year), primarily due to a decrease in production in India. The stock forecast was reduced by another 4 million tons to 169 million tons, which would be 9 million tons less than last year's figure. The estimate of world trade was almost unchanged compared to the September report, remaining at 49 million tons (-5% for the year).
