The volumes of sunflower processing in Ukraine exceeded forecasts

According to IA "APK-Inform", in July the volumes of sunflower processing in Ukraine under the pressure of seasonal factors (reduction of raw material stocks and transition of a number of enterprises to rapeseed processing) decreased by 10% compared to June to 1 million tons, which became one of the best indicators for this month and exceeded previous forecasts.

 

During the 11 months of the 2023/24 FY in Ukraine, the maximum 14.4 million tons of sunflower were processed in the last 4 seasons, which became the third highest indicator for such a period after 15.4 million tons in the 2019/20 FY and 14.6 million tons in 2018/19 MR.

 

Sunflower processing forecast in FY 2023/24 has been increased by 7% compared to the previous estimate to 15.2 million tons, which will exceed the figure of FY 2022/23 by 9%, official data and expert estimates for sunflower production in 2023 and will almost match the record pre-war indicators.

 

Against the background of significant volumes of sunflower processing and sunflower oil export, experts of APC-Inform in August corrected the data on last year's sunflower harvest, as it turned out to be underestimated due to military operations and the difficult situation in the frontline regions.

 

The forecast for sunflower production in 2024 has been reduced by 2% compared to July estimates to 14.4 million tons, which will be 6% less than the 2023 harvest, as the abnormal July heat had a negative impact on the yield of oil crops, in particular soybeans and sunflowers.

 

During the week, export prices for meal remained at $200-210/t or UAH 9,800-10,200/t, and for sunflower oil at $920-930/t with delivery to Black Sea ports. The volume of offers is decreasing, but processors expect that sunflower harvesting will begin this year already in the second half of August.

 

Sunflowers have already started to be harvested in the south of Ukraine, and the first data indicate a low yield and oil content, which supports purchase prices at a high level of UAH 19,000-19,500/t with delivery to the plant.

 

In July, the export of sunflower meal decreased by 28% compared to June to 290,000 tons, which exceeded the July 2023 figure by 12% and became the best figure for this month in the last 4 seasons. At the same time, while the export of meal to China decreased by 16% to 179,000 tons, deliveries to the EU increased by 4% to 102,000 tons. We would like to remind you that in the EU there is a duty on the import of meal from the Russian Federation and Belarus, so the prospects for the export of meal from of Ukraine to the EU are improving.

 

According to the European Commission, in July 2024, the EU did not import sunflower meal from the Russian Federation, but bought it in Ukraine (78%) and Argentina (14%), and also purchased meal from Kazakhstan (4%) for the first time after a long break. At the same time, from July to June 2023/24, the share of Russian meal in the total import of meal to the EU was 27% (22% in 2022/23).

 

From September to July 2023/24, Ukraine exported 4.5 million tons of sunflower meal, the maximum for this period in the last 4 seasons, of which 42% - to the EU and 37% - to China.