China's soybean processing output exceeds demand, so it increases soybean oil exports

Amid significant soybean processing and low domestic demand, soybean oil stocks in China reached 1.5 million tons as of October 30, which was 4.3% higher than the corresponding figure in 2025 and became the maximum value for this period, starting from 2024. Excess supply lowers domestic prices and forces processors to increase export sales.

 

China remains the world's largest importer of soybeans and is increasing its imports from Brazil and the United States to meet the needs of its oil refining and livestock industries. The increase in soybean imports was facilitated by an agreement between the United States and the PRC to resume soybean supplies as part of a trade truce.

 

However, significant processing volumes against the backdrop of weak demand caused by the economic slowdown and reduced household spending are leading to the accumulation of soybean oil stocks.

 

According to COFCO Futures experts, in the near future the rate of processing will continue to exceed the rate of sales and consumption of oil and meal, the stocks of which in the country also reached a 2-year maximum in October.

 

Therefore, Chinese processors are forced to intensify export sales of their products. In the first 9 months of 2026, soybean oil exports tripled compared to the same period last year and reached almost 800 thousand tons.

 

Due to oversupply and rising inventories, soybean oil futures on the Dalian exchange fell 1% on November 3. They are also being pressured by falling oil prices caused by rumors of a possible diplomatic settlement between the US and Iran.

 

In the future, the Chinese soybean oil market will depend on the volume of soybean processing, the level of demand for oil, and the possibility of increasing export shipments.