The volume of world production of vegetable oils will exceed last year's, although smaller than expected

2020-11-12 12:02:46
Machine translation
The volume of world production of vegetable oils will exceed last year's, although smaller than expected

In the November report, the USDA forecast global production of vegetable oils reduced (in particular sunflower oil), while consumption estimates almost did not change, which will lead to reductions in ending stocks and further price growth.

 

in comparison with the October forecast balance world production vegetable oils in 2020/21 MG reduced 0.9 million tons to 208,71 million tonnes, 2.2 million tonnes higher than the figure recorded 2019/20 Mr. Due to the increase forecast consumption by 0.38 million tonnes to 207,7 million tonnes (202,47 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG) a rating of ending inventory decreased by 0.84 million tonnes to 18.96 million tonnes (21,66 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG).

 

the Forecast of sunflower oil production still decreased by 0.69 million tonnes to 19.36 million tonnes (21,277 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG), whereas estimates of production of other oils left on the level of October: canola – 27,42 million tonnes (of 27.85 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG), soy – of 60.14 million tonnes (57,7 million tons), palm of 75.2 million tonnes (72,77 million tons).

 

Forecast export vegetable oils decreased by 0.54 million tonnes to 85,72 million tonnes (86,61 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG), primarily due to the reduction of sunflower oil exports by 0.46 million tonnes to 10.85 million tonnes (13,12 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG), which will be partially offset by increased import of palm oil by 0.37 million tonnes to 49.57 million tons (for 47.61 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG).

 

After the publication of the report the stock price of soybean oil rose 2.5%, on palm – 1.4%, and yesterday continued to rise due to the reduction of sentences and higher prices on the physical markets, which has thus reacted to the report.

 

the January futures for palm oil exchange in Malaysia yesterday rose 2.8% to 8.5-year high of 3346 Ringgits/t or 810,76 $/t, adding over 5% amid predictions of intensifying exports and reduce stocks to a 4-year low.

 

December futures for soybean oil on the stock exchange in the United States yesterday increased by 2% to the highest since December of 2016, the level - 809 $/ton, although during the session reached 817 $/t in the background of a sharp reduction in the forecast of soybean ending stocks in the United States.

 

After the exchange's quotations for the physical market bid prices of Argentine soybean oil increased to 900-950 $/t FOB.

 

the bid Prices for Ukrainian sunflower oil grew to 1100 $/MT FOB, while demand reached 1,050 $/t FOB, however, a shortage of supply increases the voltage on the market.

 

Since the beginning of September, the price of unrefined Ukrainian sunflower oil grew by 25% despite the reduction of production and curbing sales of sunflower producers.

 

India, which is the main buyer of Ukrainian sunflower oil in October increased its imports in comparison with September by 2.3% to 201 thousand tons, while China acquired 86,5 thousand tons, Netherlands – 47,9 thousand tons of Ukrainian oil.

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