A new report by the USDA shocked the sharp decline in forecast corn production in the United States

2020-11-11 12:06:27
Machine translation
A new report by the USDA shocked the sharp decline in forecast corn production in the United States

Adjustment of balance sheet for corn USDA experts was greater than analysts had expected. As a result, corn futures on the stock exchange in the United States yesterday increased by 3.3% to 171 $/t due to a lower forecast grain production and increase the export forecast for the United States, with the result that ending stocks will decrease to 21%, also due to the reduction in harvest and exports and increasing imports by China.

 

For the United States in a new report by the USDA, the average corn yield reduced in comparison with the October balance 178,4 to 175.8 bushel/acre, and production forecasts - with 373,95 to 368,5 million tonnes (345,9 million tons in 2019), though analysts the day before had been estimated at 177,7 bushels/acre and 372,4 million tons, respectively. The export forecast was increased from 8.25 million tons to a record 67.3 million tons (45 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG), that does not look too real, even for a high pace of exports. The reduction in the feed use forecast consumption of corn were reduced by 2 million t. the Estimate for ending stocks was reduced by 11.81 million tons to the lowest since 2013/14 my level – 43,23 million tons.

 

the initial Estimate of world stocks of maize decreased compared to the October report by 0.9 million tonnes to 303,33 million tons (320 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG) due to their reduction in the United States and South Africa.

 

the Forecast for world corn production in 2020/21 MG sharply reduced on 12,571 million tonnes to 1144,63 million tons (1112 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG) due to the reduction of manufacture:

the

US – 4.5 million tonnes to 368,49 million tons,

the EU by 1.9 million tons to 64.2 million tonnes (66,68),

Russia – 1 million tonnes to 14 million tonnes (of 14.28),

Moldova by 0.8 million t to 1.3 million t

  • in Ukraine by 8 million tons to 28.5 million tons (35.9 million tons in 2019/20 MG),

For South Africa production forecast increased 2 million tons to 16 million tons

 

the corn Harvest in Ukraine, the economy is estimated at 33 million tonnes, local experts IGC – 33 million tonnes, APK-Inform to 33.8 million tons, Agritel – 30.5 million tons, the TGS – 30 million tonnes, while the USDA lowered the forecast to 28.5 million tonnes.

 

In Ukraine, with 72,4% of the area harvested 19,577 million MT of corn with a yield of 4.96 t/ha, which is the worst figure since 2012/13, when it amounted to 4,79 t/ha. it is Expected that the total crop will amount to 28.5 million tons.

 

import Forecast of corn to China increased by 6 million tonnes to 13 million tonnes (analysts have estimated it at 15 million tonnes), the EU has reduced by 4 million t to 20 million t, of Mexico – 1 million tonnes to 17.3 million tonnes.

 

Evaluation of world exports of corn in 2020/21 MG left almost unchanged at the level 184,77 million tons as reduced exports from Ukraine by 8 million tonnes to 22.5 million tonnes compensates for the increase for the United States by 8.25 million tons.

 

the Forecast of world corn ending stocks in 2020/21 MG reduced by 9 million tonnes to 291,43 million tonnes (303,3 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG), compared with analysts 296,37 million tons.

 

the global consumption of corn decreased by 6.06 million tons to 1,15654 billion tons (1,121 billion tonnes in 2019/20 Mr), in particular for the US, 1.9 million tons and EU – 5.5 million tonnes, which compensates for the increase in consumption in China, a 3 million t

 

Balances for Brazil, Argentina and China in comparison with September has not changed, although dry weather in Argentina may adjust the balance in the second half of the season.

 

the Increase in corn prices will lead to decrease of consumption and, as a consequence, adjustment of the volume of world consumption, especially in the backdrop of quarantines by most countries.

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