New USDA report on wheat was neutral for the market
In the September report, the USDA forecast global wheat production decreased by 2.54 million tonnes to 765,53 million tonnes compared to 730,8 million tonnes in 2018, and 762,3 million tonnes in 2017.
the production Forecasts are reduced for Australia 2 million tons, Ukraine and Russia by 0.5 million tons, Kazakhstan – by 1.5 million tons to 11.5 million tons, which will be the smallest increase since 2012/13. However this will be offset by increased production in the EU and India 1 million tons respectively.
Due to increased carryover stocks of wheat in Canada and the EU global beginning stocks in 2019/20 MG will grow by 1.75 million tonnes to 277,24 mln t, and ending down 1.1 million tons to a record 286,51 million tons Is due to reduced forecasts of consumption of wheat in Ukraine, Russia, the Middle East and Southeast Asia, through that world consumption will decrease by 1.9 million tonnes to 756,26 million tonnes, although in 2018/19 MG it stood at 735 million tons.
the Volume of world wheat supply in the new report are essentially unchanged, while ending stocks increased. Also unchanged is the balance of wheat for the United States. Now the market is focused on the reduction in the forecasts for soybean and corn, both global and for the United States.
Prices supported the increase in wheat exports from the U.S. for the week 95,8% to 610,948 thousand tons, which is 57.6% higher than the corresponding period last year. In addition, there is the hope to solve the trade dispute between the US and China.
against this background, the December f’ucers of soft wheat in Chicago has updated its monthly maximum.
the December wheat futures in the U.S.:
1,84 $/t to 148,26 $/t for solid winter HRW-wheat in Kansas city
1,84 $/t to 186,38 $/t on a firm spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.
- at 2.30 $/t to 177,74 $/t for SRW soft winter-wheat in Chicago
the Exchange in Paris was completed before the publication of the USDA report, therefore, bidding was sluggish, and the market focused on the growth of Chicago.
- December f't usersi milling wheat MATIF increased by 0,25 €/t to 169,50 €/t or 187,55 $/t