A new forecast of wheat production in Russia again have fallen off the market

2018-09-13 12:06:59
Machine translation
A new forecast of wheat production in Russia again have fallen off the market

market Analysts expected a decrease of the forecast of wheat production in the September balance USDA due to reduced production in EU, Canada and Australia, already made by the local statistical Agency.


However, experts of the USDA lowered the forecast of wheat production in Canada only 1 million tonnes to 31.5 million tonnes, while the statistical Bureau of the country estimated at 29 million tons For Australia, the forecast of production reduced by 2 million tonnes to 20 million tonnes, though the Australian Bureau ABARES had forecast a harvest of 19 million tons, but wheat production in the EU left at 137.5 million tons, while European analysts estimate it in the range of 128-136 million tons.


the Most surprising was the increase in forecast wheat production in Russia at 3 million tons to 71 million tons by improving the yields of spring wheat in the Eastern regions. Recall now that these regions suffer from rains, resulting in the rate of harvest of spring wheat is 2.5 times lower than last year, while for yield the required dry weather during September.


In the September report, the USDA forecast global wheat production increased by 3.4 million tons to 733 million tons, or 25.3 million tons will yield the harvest of last season. Recall that the experts of the FAO world wheat production in 2018/19 MG is estimated at 722 million tonnes, and IGC analysts predict it within 716,4 million tons.


So, the intrigue in the wheat market persists, although after the publication of the report, wheat prices on U.S. exchanges declined by 2.5-3%.


December futures U.S. wheat fell:

by 5.87 $/t to 186,20 $/t for solid winter HRW wheat in Kansas city

3.77 $/t to 207,60 $/t on a firm spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

  • 4,41 $/t to 186,20 $/t for SRW soft winter-wheat in Chicago


Yesterday, the Egyptian GASC bought 235 thousand tons of Russian wheat at a price of 223 $/t FOB or 240,2 $/t CFR, which is 5.2 $/t higher than at the previous tender when it was purchased, only one batch of wheat.


Traders almost got the desired price for wheat, because bid prices were at the level 225-226 $/t FOB.