New balance USDA has led to a rise in soybean prices

the Forecast of soybean crop in the United States, which is the second largest producer of oil significantly affect world balance.

In its October report, USDA due to reduced soybean yields from 47.9 to 46.96 bushel/acre estimate of oil production in the U.S. decreased by 2.2 million tonnes to 96,62 million tonnes, which nearly corresponds to the average forecast of other analysts, while report data for corn for the second month are significantly different.

Forecast initial stocks of soybeans in the U.S. decreased by 2.51 million tonnes to 24.85 million tons, end – 4.91 million tonnes to 12.5 million tonnes.

World beginning stocks of soybeans compared with the assessment in September decreased by 2.54 million tonnes to 109,87 million tons, the forecast of production by 2.42 million tonnes to 4-year high of 339 million tons, ending stocks – 5.02 million tonnes to 95,21 million tons.

Forecast soybean production for Brazil left at 123 million tons, while the Brazilian Agency CONAB has estimated it at 120.4 mln t

Weekly soybean exports exceeded expectations and amounted to 2,092 million tonnes, of which 1,177 million tons will be exported to China. Against this background, soybean futures in Chicago rose to a 3-month high 342,6 $/t

the Results of trade negotiations between the US and China are not yet known, so the news on this issue today will determine the dynamics of prices for soybeans.

the Forecast of consumption and imports of soybeans in China has remained unchanged, while reducing the sentences of Brazilian soybeans will force China to make concessions in the US to increase imports of U.S. soybeans during the next 3 months.