Trump's new 48-hour ultimatum to Iran continues to keep oil prices high

Global markets remain under pressure from the escalating confrontation between the US and Iran, especially after yesterday’s latest ultimatum from President Trump, in which he gave Iran 48 hours to sign a peace deal, threatening to launch attacks on power plants and bridges if it refuses.” Iran has already responded with a refusal, and local media published a photo of the new Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei in a war room in front of a map showing the Israeli nuclear plant with its coordinates highlighted, as a hint of a retaliatory strike.

 

New strikes on the Mina al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdallah oil facilities and refineries, the KPC headquarters, where the Ministry of Oil is located, and repeated attacks on Kuwait International Airport confirm that Iran continues to pressure Trump by increasing chaos in the region and increasing oil prices.

 

Iran has announced that Iraq will be exempted from all maritime restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a “brotherly nation” amid escalating tensions. Central Command spokesman Khatham al-Anbiya said the current blockade only targets “enemy states,” while Iraq will be allowed to continue normal oil exports through the strategic waterway.

 

Over the weekend, in coordination with Iran, about 10 ships (from different countries) passed through the strait per day.

 

Despite the "green light" given to Iraq, shipping lanes in the region remain under threat due to a possible confrontation between major naval forces, which makes the situation extremely unstable, so we should not expect a significant increase in the number of tankers leaving the Persian Gulf.

 

On Sunday, eight OPEC+ members agreed at an online meeting to increase oil production quotas by 206,000 barrels per day, starting in May 2026. However, analysts expected a more significant increase in production amid a growing supply shortage, and the decision will not significantly mitigate the consequences of the largest oil crisis in history, Reuters notes.

 

The successful operation by the US military to rescue the pilot and navigator of an American F-15 plane shot down by Iran may give Trump optimism in his decision to begin a military deblockade of the Strait of Hormuz while continuing strikes on Iranian military facilities.