New export rules and the war in Iran have halted grain exports from Kazakhstan

Changes in the Tax Code of Kazakhstan, in particular regarding VAT refunds, have led to a reduction in grain exports, as a result of which traders have practically abandoned purchases, reports the Grain Union of Kazakhstan.

Against this background, prices for wheat of grades 3 and 5 on the domestic market decreased slightly during the week, while prices for barley and flaxseed remained unchanged.

Exporters sharply increased their wheat offer prices last week, but importers are in no hurry to sign contracts and are analyzing market prospects.

Export prices of barley offers this week increased by $5/t FOB Aktau port, but hostilities in the Middle East will halt trade, the continuation of which will depend on the duration of the war and the domestic political situation in Iran.

Changes in the Tax Code regarding the reduction of the VAT offset amount for the export of agricultural products by 80% negatively affect the market, which is trying to adapt to new conditions and study price trends.

According to the Analytical Committee of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, current export prices are:

• wheat 3 cl (gluten 23-24%) - $265-270/t DAP Saryagash,
• wheat 3 cl (gluten 25-26%) - $268-273/t DAP Saryagash,
• wheat 3 cl (gluten 27%) - $280-285/t DAP Saryagash,
• wheat 3 cl (gluten 28-29%) - $300-305/t DAP Saryagash,
• wheat 3 cl (gluten 30+) - $315-320/t,
• wheat 4 cl - 255-260 $/t DAP Saryagash,
• wheat 5 cl - 245-250 $/t DAP Saryagash,
• barley - $255-260/t DAP Saryagash,
• barley - $255-260/t FOB Aktau,
• barley - $235-240/t DAP Dostik/Altinkol,
• flax seeds - $510-515/t FCA - shipping station,
• Kazakhstani wheat flour (Atta – Afghan grinding) - $260-265/t DAP Saryagash,
• flour 1st grade – $315-320/t DAP Saryagash,
• flour – top grade – $405-410/t DAP Saryagash,
• feed flour protein 11-12% - $240-245/t DAP Alashankou / Khorgos,
• feed flour protein 12-13% - $245-250/t DAP Alashankou / Khorgos.

Kazakhstan has harvested a significant wheat crop this season, so stopping exports will lead to a sharp increase in stocks.