Low export demand and competition on the world market are putting pressure on soybean prices in Ukraine

The large volume of American soybeans that China refuses to buy continues its expansion into other markets and creates competitive pressure on Ukrainian soybean prices.

Problems with payment of duties by producers remain, as customs officers, in order to speed up clearance, offer to pay a 10% duty as a guarantee payment while the documents are being processed, so farmers are in no hurry to sell soybeans and rapeseed for export, waiting for these issues to be resolved.

During the week, export prices for GMO soybeans remain at the level of 388–390 $/t or 16,800–16,900 UAH/t, and for non-GMO soybeans at the level of 18,000–18,200 UAH/t or 420–430 $/t with delivery to Black Sea ports. At the same time, demand from processors remains high, and they offer 16,500–17,100 UAH/t for GMO soybeans with delivery to the factory, so producers are actively selling products on the domestic market.

Soybean exports from Ukraine in the first 15 days of October amounted to 82 thousand tons compared to 234 thousand tons in the same period last year, and total exports in the 2025/26 MY reached 160.2 thousand tons (550 thousand tons last year).

The decrease in precipitation allowed for faster harvesting, but producers are primarily trying to harvest sunflowers, so soybeans were threshed on only 6% of the area in a week, and in general, as of October 16, 3.08 million tons of soybeans were threshed from 62% of the area or 1.34 million hectares with a yield of 2.29 tons/hectare, while last year on this date, 5.2 million tons of soybeans were threshed from 88% of the area with a yield of 2.26 tons/hectare.

Higher yields and larger planting areas could boost Ukraine's soybean harvest to USDA-projected levels, but the question is whether the weather will allow the harvest to be completed without losses. Increased domestic supply will be offset by falling foreign demand as cheap soybeans enter traditional Ukrainian markets.

Soybean shipments from the US increased by 45% to 1.47 million tons per week (to Mexico, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Egypt), and in total, from September 1 to October 9, the US exported 5.54 million tons of soybeans, which is 30.9% lower than last year's pace.

November soybean futures in Chicago rose by 1.2% yesterday to $379.1/t (+2.5% for the week, +2.2% for the month) amid new statements by Trump that he expects China to resume soybean purchases at the level of previous years (a meeting of the leaders of the US and China is planned in South Korea at the end of October).

Imports of soybeans from the United States fell to zero in September from 1.7 million tonnes a year earlier, while China imported 12.87 million tonnes of soybeans in September, the second-highest on record, data from China's General Administration of Customs showed on Monday. Shipments from Brazil rose 29.9% year-on-year to 10.96 million tonnes last month, accounting for 85.2% of the country's total oilseed imports, while shipments from Argentina rose 91.5% to 1.17 million tonnes.

From January to September, China imported 63.7 million tons of soybeans from Brazil (+2.4% year-on-year) and 2.9 million tons of soybeans from Argentina (+31.8%).

Reuters analysts note that even despite Chinese buyers' rejection of this year's American crop, imports of American beans have amounted to 16.8 million tons since the beginning of the year.

According to AgRural, 24% of the projected area has already been sown with soybeans in Brazil (18% last year), and favorable weather continues to improve conditions for sowing and developing a new record soybean crop in the country.