The low rate of export sales from the USA is putting pressure on stock market quotations

Quotations for wheat, soybeans and corn on the US exchanges fell sharply yesterday against the background of data on the low volume of export sales, and even forecasts of a decrease in the harvest of soybeans and corn could not support them.

Favorable weather in the U.S. is speeding up soybean and corn harvests and increasing supply, while export demand is shrinking due to a global economic slowdown and increased competition from cheaper soybeans and corn from South America. In addition, declining water levels in US rivers are slowing waterborne shipments to the Gulf, which is also putting pressure on prices.

As of Oct. 2, U.S. corn is 20% threshed and soybeans are 22% threshed, while the 5-year averages for that date are 22% and 25%, respectively.

According to the US MSG, export sales for September 23-29 decreased compared to the previous week:

• wheat - by 22% to 229.4 thousand tons,
• corn - 2.2 times from 512 to 227 thousand tons,
• soybeans - by 29% to 777.1 thousand tons.

In general, since the beginning of the season, the export of corn amounted to 13.22 million tons (twice less than on this date last year), and soybeans - 27.5 million tons, which is 4.5% ahead of last year's pace.

Yesterday, quotations on the US stock exchanges decreased:

• by 1.2% to $266/t – December corn futures,
• by 0.8% to $499/t – November soybean futures,
• by 2.7% or $8.45/t to $323/t - December futures for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 2.7% or $9.28/t to $354.6/t - December futures for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 2% or $6.98/t to $353.7/t - December futures for HRS durum wheat in Minneapolis.

Ahead of the USDA's October report, Bloomberg conducted a poll that showed analysts expected U.S. corn yields to decline 0.4 bushels/acre to 172.1 bushels/acre and soybean yields to increase 0.1 bushels/acre to 50. 6 bushels/acre.

StoneX Group experts reduced the forecast of corn production in the US in FY 2022/23 by 2.8 million tons to 357 million tons compared to previous estimates, while the USDA in September estimated it at 354.2 million tons, and in FY 2021/22 it amounted to 382.9 million tons. The forecast for the soybean harvest was reduced by 2 million tons to 120.9 million tons, compared to the USDA forecasts of 119.16 million tons and 121.5 million tons for the 2021/22 season.