Low yields in the south keep sunflower prices in Ukraine high at the start of the 2025/26 season, but their further growth limits the fall in prices for Russian oil

The first operational data on sunflower harvesting in Odessa and Dnipropetrovsk regions confirm a very low yield. Thus, from the first 3.2 thousand hectares, only 1.8 thousand tons of sunflower were harvested with a yield of 0.56 tons/hectare, which is why processors are keeping purchase prices for sunflower at a high level and at the same time increasing plans for processing rapeseed and soybeans at factories in the south and center of Ukraine to ensure their operation throughout the season.

Demand prices for sunflower in Ukraine remained at UAH 26,000-27,000/t (50% oil content) for delivery to factories during the week, as demand for oil remains high, and mass harvesting of sunflower will not begin until September 10-15.

Oil extraction plants in southern and central Ukraine have increased their rapeseed processing plans and stepped up purchases to ensure raw material supplies in September and October, as the rapeseed processing margin is still higher than that of sunflower, and export prices for sunflower oil continue to decline on forecasts of an increase in the harvest in the Russian Federation.

The Oil and Fat Union has increased the forecast for oilseed production in the Russian Federation in 2025 to 33.5 million tons (28.6 million tons last year), in particular rapeseed - to 5.3 (5.1) million tons, soybeans - to 8 (7.7) million tons, sunflower - to a record 18.3 million tons. The forecast for vegetable oil production in the new season has been increased to 10.5 million tons, which is already increasing pressure on prices.

Demand prices for Russian sunflower oil for delivery in August-September decreased by $5-10/t to $1,130-1,135/t during the week against the backdrop of a seasonal price decline and forecasts of a good harvest.

The weather in the Russian Federation is conducive to the development of sunflower crops, which allows to increase harvest forecasts. Therefore, analysts estimate increased competition in the sunflower oil market and a decrease in its prices.

In September, a seasonal increase in the supply of rapeseed and sunflower oil from the EU, Ukraine, and the Russian Federation is expected on the world market, which, against the backdrop of reduced demand from India at the end of the month, will lead to a decrease in prices, especially since there are no factors supporting prices for soybeans and sunflowers yet.