German farmers' association DBV has lowered its harvest forecasts, which will support quotes

According to the forecast of the German Farmers' Association (DBV), in 2026, the yield of grain crops in the country will decrease by 9% compared to the previous year to 6.89 t/ha, and the total harvest will decrease by 7% from 45.2 to 41.9 million t, which will be inferior to the average annual level.

 

The reason was a dry spring and intense June heat, which prevented grain from filling and led to premature ripening. This year's harvest varies greatly depending on the regions, DBV notes. In particular, in the south and west of the country, the deficit of precipitation significantly reduced the yield of many crops.

 

Thus, the yield of the most important crop - winter wheat - decreased by 9% to 7.21 t/ha, so only 20.9 million tons of grain will be harvested from an area of 2.9 million hectares, which will be 7% lower than last year's level.

 

The yield of winter barley decreased by 4% to 7.56 t/ha, which, due to the increase in sowing areas, allowed harvesting 9.5 million t (which corresponds to the level of last year).

 

The yield of winter rapeseed decreased by as much as 20% to 2.91 t/ha, so its harvest amounted to only 3.3 million t.

 

In addition to heat and drought, crops were negatively affected by pests and the lack of effective means of combating flea beetles and cabbage weevils.

 

Note that DBV estimates are based on reports from state farmers' associations and/or long-term averages from the Federal Statistical Office.

 

Recall that the European Commission predicts an increase in the rapeseed harvest in Germany compared to 2025 from 3.95 to 4-4.1 million tons due to an increase in sowing areas by 5% and good yield at 3.68 t/ha.

 

Amid a pessimistic forecast from the German Farmers' Association, November rapeseed futures on the Matif exchange in Paris rose 1% yesterday to €551.75/t or $640/t (+7.6% since the beginning of August), but are trading 1.3% below the maximum level reached in July.

 

Therefore, we expect that speculative price jumps in rapeseed will decrease as the new crop enters the market and under the pressure of harvest data in the EU. And if Ukraine solves logistical problems and increases supplies of cheap rapeseed, and later soybeans and sunflowers to the European market, then prices in the EU will start to fall.