Unchanged canola crop forecasts in Canada and Australia restrain the growth of stock market quotations

According to Statistics Canada (StatCan), domestic canola production in FY2024/25 is expected to grow by 1.6% from the previous season, from 19,192 to 19.5 million tonnes, which is 2.6% below the USDA forecast, but overall will correspond to the average estimate of analysts.

On the report, November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange fell 0.5% yesterday to CAD 596/t or $441.76/t (+3.3% for the week, -6.5% for the month).

The Australian Oilseeds Federation (AOF) expects 5.435 million tonnes of canola to be harvested from 3.2 million hectares in 2024/25, while the official ABARES forecast is for a harvest of 5.385 million tonnes and an area of 3.1 million hectares . The AOF considers the current season's weather quite atypical, as it was dry in regions accustomed to good rainfall, and heavy rain fell in normally arid areas.

November rapeseed futures on the Paris exchange yesterday also fell 0.5% to €461.25/t or $513.55/t (+0.9% for the week, -4.1% for the month). Processors are in no hurry to raise prices, as they have the necessary raw material stocks and are waiting for data on the harvest in the EU.

In Ukraine, the purchase prices for rape this week increased by another 200-300 hryvnias/t to 22,500-22,800 hryvnias/t or $480-490/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, which boosted sales by producers.

Traders have not yet reacted to the unsatisfactory weather conditions in Ukraine for sowing winter rapeseed. If there is no rain in the next 2 weeks, farmers will not have time to sow rapeseed at the optimal time (from August 5 to September 5). As a result of climate change in recent years, the dates for sowing rapeseed in Ukraine have shifted from August to September, but in the case of a cold autumn, the crops may not grow to the size necessary for normal wintering.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of August 26, only 232.5 thousand hectares were sown with winter rapeseed in Ukraine. Early crops were badly affected by the lack of rain in August, and some fields had no seedlings at all.

We will remind that in 2023 (according to the State Statistics Service), 1.254 million hectares were sown with winter rapeseed in Ukraine.