Unexpectedly for the market in the report, the USDA increased the forecast production, export and oilseed stocks

In the March balance experts, the USDA increased the forecast production, exports and ending stocks of oilseeds that surprised market participants who had expected a decline to forecast soybean crop in Argentina and, as a consequence, a reduction in ending stocks.

the Bearish nature of the report increased pressure on the prices of oilseeds, but the market is still suffering from a shortage of proposals on the background of deterrence sales producers in anticipation of further price increases.

Due to increases in predictions of soybean production in South America and canola in Australia from the global oil production increased by 0.7 million tonnes to 595,8 million tonnes (578,68 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG).

the initial Forecast of the global soybean stocks increased by 1.19 million tonnes to 96,04 million tonnes, because the soybean crop in Brazil in 2019/20 MG in 2.5 million tons higher than predicted and built 128,5 million tonnes.

the global soybean production increased by 0.74 million tonnes to 361,82 million tonnes (339 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG), in particular for Brazil by 1 million tonnes to 134 million tons (128,5 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG), which compensates for the decrease of production in Argentina by 0.5 million tonnes to 47.5 million tonnes (48.8 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG).

Thanks to the active procurement of soybeans by China forecast of world exports of soybeans increased by 0.59 million tonnes to 69,69 million tonnes, in particular the USA – by 0.55 million tonnes to 61,24 million tonnes (45,78 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG).

the global consumption of soybeans has increased by 1.47 million tonnes to 371,31 million tonnes (356,82 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG) due to the increase in processing volumes in Argentina by 1 million tonnes to 47.4 million tons and Brazil at 1 million tonnes to RUB 49.15 million tonnes, which partially compensates for the reduction processing in China, 1 million tons to 98 million tons and reduce consumption by 1 million tonnes.

increase the volume of soybean in Argentina and Brazil will increase proposals of soybean meal and oil on the world market that the decline in demand from China could lead to a drop in prices. Moreover, reducing consumption and increasing stocks of soybeans in China shows the saturation of the market, especially given the sharp increase in harvest in Brazil.

the global ending stocks of soybeans in 2020/21 MG increased by 0.38 million tons to 83.74 million tonnes (96,04 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG), though analysts were expecting them to a fall of 0.7 million tonnes to 82,66 million tonnes.

To report data futures exchange in Chicago declined:

• to soy – 0.6% to $ 526 $/t (513,46 $/t in February),
• soybean meal by 0.4% to 457,35 $/t (481,9 $/t in February),
• on soybean oil – 0.8% to 1170 $/t (1020 $/t in February).

Under the pressure of falling prices for feed grain prices on the meal also gradually decline, which soon will increase the pressure on soybeans, despite the rise in world prices for oil.