Increased supplies of soybeans and soybean meal from South America have caused soybean prices in Chicago to collapse, but prices in Ukraine continue to rise

The low probability of China purchasing American soybeans and improving planting conditions in the US are increasingly putting pressure on quotes in Chicago, especially against the backdrop of active exports of soybeans and soybean products from South America.

July soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell another 5.8% last week to $409.7/t, losing 8.5% over the month, while November futures fell 5.3% over the month to $417/t.

According to the NASS report, as of June 7, 92% of the planned area had been sown with soybeans in the United States (compared to 88% on average for 5 years), and the number of crops in good or excellent condition was 65% (68% last year).

According to Oil World, exports of soybeans, soybean oil and soybean meal from Brazil have again exceeded forecasts and the corresponding figures of last year. Thus, in May, soybean exports increased compared to last year from 14.1 to 14.83 million tons (in particular to China - from 10.38 to 10.53 million tons), soybean meal - from 2.27 to 2.55 million tons (although to the EU it decreased from 1.19 to 1.13 million tons), and soybean oil - from 151 to 202 thousand tons (in particular to India - from 112 to 164 thousand tons).

In the first 5 months of 2026, Brazil exported a record 55.1 million tons of soybeans, which is 3.55 million tons more than the corresponding figure of the previous year. China remains the main buyer of Brazilian soybeans, although its share in exports decreased from 74% to 69%, although actual volumes of supplies remained at the level of 38.1 million tons. At the same time, Brazil increased soybean exports to the EU by 1 million tons to 4.51 million tons, to Turkey - by 0.8 million tons to 2.06 million tons, to Thailand - by 0.5 million tons to 1.69 million tons, to Pakistan - by 0.4 million tons to 1.35 million tons.

Soybean oil exports from Brazil in the first 5 months of 2026 reached a 3-year high of 924 thousand tons (which is 43% higher than last year), of which 663 thousand tons were delivered to India (+44% year-on-year).

Exports of soybean meal in the first 5 months of the year also grew to a record 10.2 million tons due to increased domestic processing of its own products.

Increased supplies of South American soybeans to traditional Ukrainian markets have sharply reduced demand for Ukrainian soybeans from Turkey and Pakistan. Demand from the EU remains insignificant, but demand for soybean meal is also declining due to seasonal increases in supplies to the EU from Argentina and Brazil.

Export demand for GMO soybeans is almost non-existent at ports, as exporters cannot form export batches, and export prices for soybeans delivered by railcars to the western border have increased by another $5/t to $485-490/t, while prices for GMO and non-GMO soybeans have sometimes been at the same level.

Processors in Ukraine have increased purchase prices for GMO soybeans to UAH 22,000–22,500/t ($430–440/t excluding VAT) delivered to the factory, while prices for non-GMO soybeans have increased by UAH 200–300/t to UAH 22,500–23,000/t delivered to the factory.

The soybean supply deficit on the domestic Ukrainian market will persist until the start of rapeseed processing, which will further increase the supply of meal and oil on the EU market and collapse export demand for Ukrainian soybean meal.