At the end of the season, processing volumes decrease, and sunflower prices increase

In the current season, sunflower prices in Ukraine were very unstable and depended on a number of factors, primarily on the volume of meal and oil exports through the Black Sea ports. At the end of the 2022/23 season, processing volumes and demand for sunflower were expected to decrease, especially with the new crop of canola coming into the market soon. However, processing rates remain high and demand for sunflower is increasing, leading to higher purchase prices.

According to APC-Inform, during the 11 months of the 2022/23 FY, Ukraine increased the amount of sunflower processing compared to the corresponding period of the 2021/22 FY by 13% to 11.5 million tons, which exceeded the forecasts of experts, although it was the second lowest indicator for this period, starting from 2016/17 MR. In June, sunflower processing decreased by 21% compared to May to 888,000 tons, which is the lowest monthly volume of the 2022/23 season.

Prices for sunflower oil rose from $750 to $900/t with delivery to buyers, after which processors during the month raised the purchase prices for sunflower from UAH 14,000-14,500 to UAH 15,500-16,000/t with delivery to the factory, although the volume of offers is quite low, since producers stocks are already sold out.

In the new season, sunflower production will be lower than expected, because due to low and unstable prices, producers increased the area planted not with sunflower, but with soybeans, which rose in price throughout the season.

Ukroliyaprom experts believe that in 2023, Ukraine will increase sunflower production by 6.5% to 11.8 million tons compared to 2022.

Experts of the International Grains Council (IGC) increased the forecast of world sunflower production in 2023/24 MR by 1.6 million tons to 56.9 million tons, which will exceed last year's figure by 5%, as well as the record 56.2 million tons of the 2021 season /22 MR. The reason for the adjustment was the improvement of sunflower harvest prospects in the EU and Ukraine thanks to favorable rainfall in June and July. According to IGC estimates, against the backdrop of favorable weather, the EU will increase sunflower production by 15% compared to 2022 to 10.5 million tons, the Russian Federation by 1 million tons to a record 16.4 million tons, and Ukraine by 9% to 15, 3 million tons, although the sunflower sowing area decreased compared to 2022 to 5.3 million hectares. But the final figure may change due to hostilities.