On the eve of the release of the USDA report for wheat markets continued speculative rise of prices

2019-10-10 12:08:20
Machine translation
On the eve of the release of the USDA report for wheat markets continued speculative rise of prices

Yesterday the world's wheat exchanges traded in anticipation of a new report USDA and data on updated production forecasts for Australia and Argentina.


According to estimates of the Australian Department USDA, in Australia the wheat crop in 2019/20 MG will be reduced to 18 million tonnes and exports to 9.5 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes inferior to the report of September.


Experts Grain exchange Rosario reduced the forecast of wheat production from 21.5 to 20 million tonnes, while the USDA in September estimated at 20.5 million tons.


In areas of the wheat belt of Argentina " 3 months of cold weather reigns, and the Western and Central region of 1.5 months suffering from drought.


the Agency FranceAgrimer increased the forecast of exports of French wheat in 2019/20 MG to 20,186 million tonnes, which is 3.6% greater than the estimate of September, 17.6% - an indicator 2018/19 Mr, although 1.8% less than the record exports of 2015/16. Wheat exports to third countries will grow to 11.7 million tonnes, which is 6.3% will exceed September, 21% - figure 2018/19 Mr, and 1.8% to yield a record export 2015/16. The assessment of exports to the EU was left at the level of 8,362 million tons, which is 13.5% higher than the previous season.


  • After the promulgation of the new forecast, the December futures for milling wheat on MATIF rose by 0.75 €/t to a two-month high 178,75 €/t or 196,42 $/t


futures Prices for soft wheat in Chicago has not changed, because after the jump on Tuesday, the market expects the publication of the report USDA.


the December wheat futures in the U.S. had the following dynamics:

at 1.10 $/t to 151,84 $/ton rose solid winter HRW wheat in Kansas city

0.64 $/t to 199,06 $/t cheaper solid spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

  • level kase_bp 183.81 $/t left soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago


After a tender in Egypt, prices for black sea wheat continues to grow. Russian wheat with protein 12,5% offer 198-200 $/t FOB, while the bid prices are 192-194 $/t


Ukraine wheat with protein 11.5% of the offer to supply in October-November, 194-195 $/MT FOB, while for the supply to Indonesia, the price was $191/MT FOB. Input prices rose at 1-2 $/t and be at the port 177-180 $/t for wheat and 175-176 $/t for fodder.


the Turkish Military operation in Syria, lowered the rate of the Lira against the dollar in the near future will reduce the purchasing power of Turkish importers of Ukrainian and Russian wheat.