On the eve of the release of the USDA report, analysts reduce estimates of production of corn and soybeans in the United States

2020-09-10 12:04:52
Machine translation
On the eve of the release of the USDA report, analysts reduce estimates of production of corn and soybeans in the United States

Before the publication of the updated USDA balance sheets, leading analytical agencies lower their crop forecasts for the major producing countries in the result of dry and hot weather of August.

 

Most attention focused on the United States, where production of soybeans and corn will be significantly reduced in comparison with estimates in August amid adverse weather in some States. In addition, the precipitation deficit in the backdrop the heat in the Central part of the corn belt in the U.S. and storms in the States of Iowa and Nebraska, have worsened the condition of crops.

 

According to the weekly monitoring by the USDA, as of September 8, in the US the amount of corn in good or excellent condition fell last week by 1% to 61%, whereas a month ago the figure was 81%, and a year ago – 55%. The rate of maturation, higher than last year. In the stage of wax ripeness are 79% compared to 515 last year and ready to harvest 25% of crops compared to 10% last year and 19% on average for 5 years.

 

the Amount of soybeans in good or excellent condition fell last week by 1% to 65%, whereas a month ago the figure was 84%, and a year ago 54%. To cleaning ready for 20% of crops compared with 7% last year and 16% on average for 5 years.

 

According to the average estimate of analysts, the corn harvest in the US will decline projected in August 388 million tonnes to 378,3 million tonnes (345,9 million tons in 2019) due to reduced yields from 181,8 to 178,5 bushels/acre, and areas for harvest. For the same reasons, the soy harvest in the US will decline projected in August 120.4 mln. MT up to 116.8 million tonnes, which will still exceed to 96.7 million tonnes in 2019

 

the slow pace of exports in 2019/20 MG beginning stocks of corn in the U.S. in the season 2020/21 MG will rise, however, remains uncertain, the volume of exports in the new season, amid strong purchases from China.

 

Global production of maize will also be reduced due to the reduction of harvest in the EU and Ukraine due to adverse weather. Ending stocks of corn in 2020/21 MG will be reduced from projected in August 317,46 million tonnes to 311,3 million tons and ending stocks of soybeans – with of 95.5 to 92.5 million tons.

 

Active procurement of soybeans and corn China support quotes these crops on US exchanges.

 

Although the indicators of global production and consumption in the balance sheets of soybean and corn is higher than last year, the markets are too sensitive to any change in the forecasts. Since China is a major buyer of soybeans and corn and the driver of prices, the saturation of the market can dramatically derail the quotes, especially against the background due to the pandemic Covid-19 low demand.

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