Near-term rapeseed futures in Paris fell by 3.3% in a day — Ukrainian farmers should accelerate sales

Volatility in the EU rapeseed market is increasing sharply. Speculative price increases at the beginning of the season were caused by disruptions in rapeseed supplies from Ukraine and low water levels in European rivers, which also limited internal logistics and the supply of raw materials to processing plants.

 

The situation is changing now. Ukraine continues to increase its rapeseed exports, with around 430,000 tonnes shipped in September, while European farmers have also stepped up sales. This means that the supply of raw materials for EU processing plants will remain quite high until the end of the year.

 

November rapeseed futures in Paris fell by 3.3% yesterday, and over the past two weeks have already lost 9.4% and dropped to €506.25/t or $567/t (-9.7% per month).

The sharp drop in the nearest quotations indicates an increase in sales of futures contracts against the backdrop of weak physical demand and sufficient supply of rapeseed on the European market.

November rapeseed contracts expire on October 30, so volatility may remain very high until their trading ends, and quotes may show significant daily fluctuations.

 

At the same time, February rapeseed futures in Paris fell only 1.5% yesterday to €552.75/t (-0.7% for the month).

Thus, the difference between November and February contracts already exceeds €46/t. For Ukrainian producers, this may be a signal to more actively record sales of rapeseed for delivery in January–March, while forward demand prices remain relatively high.

 

Further increase in rapeseed supply from Ukraine and the EU may gradually increase pressure on more distant contracts, which will accordingly affect the purchase prices for rapeseed in Ukraine.

 

Additional pressure on the global oilseed market is being created by declining canola prices in Canada.

November canola futures in Winnipeg lost 2% yesterday to CAD 810/t or $568/t (-3.4% month-on-month) amid accelerating harvest.

Canada is forecast to see rain and cooler temperatures this week, but precipitation is expected to ease over the next 10 days, allowing farmers to complete their canola harvest and increasing supply on the market.

 

Growing rapeseed supplies from Ukraine, increased sales by European farmers, and increased canola supply from Canada may continue to put pressure on rapeseed prices in Europe.

 

Therefore, Ukrainian producers should closely monitor not only the nearest rapeseed quotes in Paris, but also the prices of February contracts, which currently remain significantly higher and may be more attractive for fixing sales of the new crop.