Oil prices rose 6% in two days on expectations of war between the US and Iran

World oil prices continue to rise due to the lack of progress in negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as signs of Trump's increasing willingness to strike at the Ayatollah's regime, in particular to distract Americans from the Epstein files, which continue to put pressure on the president within the US.

April Brent crude futures rose 6% in two days to a 6.5-month high of $71.7/barrel, 11.7% above last month's level.

The main driver of the price increase was increased military activity in the Persian Gulf region. The US deployed aircraft carrier groups near Iran, while Tehran announced missile exercises and temporarily restricted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route through which about 20% of the world's oil is transported.

President Trump said Thursday that Iran is now a “hot spot” and the next 10 days will show whether a deal can be made with it. Conspiracy theorists have calculated that the US will launch an operation against Iran on February 20, although others believe that the war will begin after February 22, the day the Winter Olympics end.

Iran is OPEC's fourth-largest producer with crude oil output of 3.3 million barrels per day, so a US attack on the country could disrupt supplies and impede movement through the Strait of Hormuz.

Crude oil stocks in floating storage have surged due to sanctions pressure. According to Vortexa, about 290 million barrels of Russian and Iranian crude are now stored on tankers, more than 50% more than a year ago. Vortexa said on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers idle for at least seven days fell by 8.2% to 86.95 million barrels between February 7 and 13.

Warm weather in the US and Europe has already led to lower gas prices, so we expect increased pressure on oil prices against the background of fundamental factors, such as increased oil supply and a decrease in the impact of the speculative factor of the war with Iran, because the US will not risk getting involved in a long war that will not bring lightning results, as in Venezuela, so Trump will rather conclude a "new great deal" with Iran on the same terms as the previous one, which he broke in 2018.