Oil prices fell another 9.6% on the day, putting pressure on rapeseed prices

January Brent crude futures fell another 9.6% yesterday to $94.5/barrel, losing 20% of their value since Monday (-3.2% for the month, +47.7% for the year) amid President Trump's statements that he does not plan to strike Iran in the near future after the elections. In addition, the Democratic Party's convincing victory in the midterm elections in both houses of the US Congress and the statement by its leader Chuck Schumer that the US should stop the conflict with Iran as soon as possible completely eliminated the speculative factor of expectations of a renewed war after the elections in Israel and the US.

 

January futures for US WTI crude oil fell another 9.2% yesterday to last month's level of $87/barrel, losing 17.2% of its price since Monday.

 

Additionally, prices are being pressured by the weekly EIA report, according to which oil inventories decreased less than expected, while inventories in the Cushing hub increased amid a record level of oil production in the US - 14 million barrels/day - in the last week of October.

 

The sharp collapse in oil prices has sharply increased pressure on biofuel feedstock markets. February rapeseed futures in Paris fell 2% yesterday to €528/t or $595/t (-5.2% since the beginning of the week, -5.7% for the month, +12.6% for the year).

 

During the 2026/27 MY, rapeseed quotes traded within €516-563/t under the influence of oil price spikes and speculation about the halt in supplies from Ukraine and forecasts of a reduced harvest in Canada and Australia, which have not yet materialized.

 

January canola futures in Winnipeg have fallen only 2.6% since the beginning of the week to 768 CAD/t or $550/t (-8.6% month-on-month, +14.6% year-on-year).

 

This situation is increasing pressure on rapeseed export prices in Ukraine, which are also falling following stock market quotes.

 

Rapeseed exports from Ukraine for 29 days of October amounted to 357.2 thousand tons (compared to 430 thousand tons in September and 292.6 thousand tons in August), and in total since the beginning of the season have already reached 1.1 million tons out of the projected 2-2.5 million tons. In November and December, supplies from Ukraine will remain quite active due to high demand from the EU, as imports from Canada and Australia are economically inexpedient due to high canola prices and increasing processing volumes in both Canada and Australia.