Oil prices rose by another 1% amid declining US inventories and stronger fuel demand

September Brent crude futures on the ICE Futures exchange in London yesterday rose another 1.2% to the highest level since April at 87.3 barrels (13% on the month) on data that US oil and fuel inventories fell to 7, 5 monthly minimum.

On Independence Day (July 4), Americans travel a lot, which sharply increases the demand for fuel. According to the weekly EIA report, crude oil stocks in the US fell by 12.16 million barrels (with expectations of a decrease of 1 million barrels), gasoline – by 2.21 million barrels (with forecasts of a decrease of 1 million barrels), distillates – by 1 .5 million barrels (with a forecast decrease of 800,000 barrels). At the same time, Cushing (WTI futures supply base) crude oil stocks increased by 345,000 barrels. Gasoline demand in the June 22-28 period rose 5.1% to a 7.5-month high of 9.424 million bpd, while crude oil production remained flat at 13.2 million bpd, nearly matching a recent record in 13.3 million barrels/day.

The latest data on the US economy turned out to be worse than expected, so it will soon become a new factor of pressure on oil and fuel prices. Claims for unemployment benefits increased by 26,000 for the week to a 2.5-year high of 1.858 million units (against expectations of 1.84 million units). Despite forecasts for growth of 0.2%, May manufacturing orders unexpectedly fell by 0.5% on the month, the biggest drop in 4 months. The June ISM services index fell 5p to 48.8p (against expectations for a decline to 52.7p), which was the biggest drop in 4 years.

Political instability in the US, related to the upcoming presidential elections, will have a strong impact on stock, index and oil quotes in the coming months.