Oil prices started the week above $100/barrel due to the blocked Strait of Hormuz and Houthis' threats to also block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The US and Israel continue air strikes on military targets in Iran, and the US is deploying 2,500-5,000 Marines to the Middle East, which may indicate intentions to conduct a previously unplanned ground operation on Kharq Island, where Iran's main oil export terminals are located. Meanwhile, Iran continues to attack US military bases in neighboring countries, oil terminals and tankers with drones, as well as block oil and liquefied gas exports from the Persian Gulf.
Amid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia redirected oil exports to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea via the East-West Pipeline, which allows the transport of about 5 million barrels/day.
But yesterday, a representative of the Yemeni Houthi movement "Ansar Allah" announced that in support of Iran they would block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, which led to a new wave of speculative price increases in the markets of Asia, whose countries are most dependent on supplies of liquefied gas and oil from the Persian Gulf region.
Against this backdrop, demand for Russian oil, which is similar in quality to oil from the Middle East, has increased sharply, making it cheaper and easier for Asian refineries to process.
Yesterday, Iranian drones again attacked the airport in Dubai and hit a fuel depot, which halted the airport's operations and increased panic in the markets.
Since the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran (February 28), Iran has launched more than 2,000 missile and drone attacks on the Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
May Brent crude futures rose 3% to $103/barrel on Friday (+40% in two weeks), and opened at $104.8/barrel on Monday as traders no longer expect the war to end soon.
According to the CFTC, since December, traders have increased their long positions in Brent crude by +966% to 351,000 contracts, the highest since February 2020.
Trump's calls for allies to join in the military unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz have not yet been responded to, and the US military has not yet attempted to conduct convoys as promised.
According to the Financial Times, if the average oil price remains at $100/barrel for a year, US producers will be among the main beneficiaries, as American oil companies could earn up to $63 billion from the Gulf War.
Another beneficiary of the rise in oil prices is the Russian Federation, as the price of Urals oil rose from $55 to $90/barrel during the month. Statements by Iranian representatives that the Russian Federation and China continue to provide military and economic support to Iran confirm that prolonging the war in the region is beneficial for the Russian Federation.
China, which has built up huge oil reserves, is reacting calmly to the halt in supplies from the Persian Gulf, as it is also interested in weakening the United States by prolonging the war.
At the same time, Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian oil terminals in the Black Sea in order to reduce oil exports from the Russian Federation and prevent the Russian budget from receiving additional revenues to continue the war.
