The approaching start of the sunflower harvest is slightly reducing sunflower prices in Ukraine, but they are supported by forecasts of a reduced harvest in the new season.

Decreasing inventories and active demand for sunflower oil at the end of the season pushed sunflower prices in Ukraine to their highest levels in the 2024/25 season, but the approaching sunflower harvest is cooling the market a bit, and prices are starting to decline.

Demand prices for sunflower in Ukraine fell by 300-500 UAH/t to 26,800-27,000 UAH/t (50% oil content) in a week following a slight decrease in export prices for sunflower oil to $1,150-1,160/t with delivery to the port.

This year, a delay in the mass harvest of sunflower is expected, as the southern and eastern regions will start work earlier due to drought, but will receive a very low harvest, and other regions, due to cold and wet weather in June and July, will begin mass harvesting of sunflower only from September 10-15, so until then, demand for raw materials will remain high.

Sunflower harvest forecasts in Ukraine have been lowered to 13-13.5 million tons, but the projected sunflower yield in the central and western regions will be higher than last year, which partially compensates for losses in the east and south.

Many factories in Ukraine have switched to processing rapeseed, so they will not rush to buy sunflower to load production in August and September, which means that a new price rally is not expected in the coming weeks.

It should be noted that the weather conditions in the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan are quite favorable for sunflower sowing, so the harvest forecasts are increasing, as well as for Bulgaria and Romania. This will increase the supply of sunflower oil on the market and accelerate the decline in prices in September and October.