Amid rising prices for American soybeans, China is buying large volumes of soybeans and oil from Brazil
November soybean quotes on the Chicago Board of Trade have already risen by 12% to $415/t in anticipation of purchases from China, which at the same time led to a decrease in soybean prices in Brazil, which Chinese buyers immediately took advantage of and purchased large quantities of Brazilian soybeans and oil.
Recall that official Beijing has still not confirmed the White House's statement that China has committed to buying 12 million tons of soybeans from the United States by the end of the year.
The oil division of the Chinese corporation COFCO reported that last week at an international exhibition in Shanghai, agreements were signed with traders ADM, Bunge, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus for the supply of almost 20 million tons of Brazilian soybeans, soybean and palm oil and other agricultural products worth more than $10 billion, but did not mention the purchase of any agricultural products from the United States.
China previously purchased several shipments of American soybeans and wheat as a goodwill gesture amid improving trade relations with the United States.
Despite reducing import duties on some American agricultural goods, China has maintained a 13% tariff on soybeans from the United States, which hinders the resumption of trade between the countries.
The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) has raised its forecast for soybean exports from Brazil in November from 3.772 to 4.26 million tons, which would be 82% higher than the November 2024 figure of 2.339 million tons. In October, the country increased soybean exports compared to the corresponding figure last year by 44.3% from 4.435 to 6.398 million tons.
Recall that the monthly agency CONAB increased the forecast for the soybean harvest in Brazil in the 2025/26 MY to 177.6 million tons (169 million tons in the 2024/25 MY and 155 million tons in the 2023/24 MY).
A new USDA report will be released today, which could greatly surprise the market.
