Amid the purchase of large batches of rapeseed from Australia, quotes in Canada are falling, while in Paris they are rising

Chinese state-owned trading company COFCO purchased about 9 batches of Australian rapeseed, totaling 540,000-550,000 tons, equivalent to 8% of China's total rapeseed imports last year.

This information increases pressure on canola quotes, but on the other hand supports rapeseed quotes in Paris, as the potential for supplies from Australia to the EU decreases.

November canola futures in Winnipeg fell 3.7% to a 6-month low of CAD 617/t or $445/t (-7% month-on-month and -5% year-on-year). Favorable harvesting conditions allow for a projected harvest, which increases supply on the market, but there are no active sales to the EU yet.

Rapeseed prices on the Paris stock exchange rose 0.4% to €472/t or $557/t over the week, but remain under pressure from uncertainty over the volumes and sources of rapeseed imports in the new season. Amid falling prices, local producers are holding back supplies, and rapeseed imports from Ukraine have virtually stopped after the introduction of an export duty.

Oil World analysts have raised their forecast for EU rapeseed imports for the 2025/26 MY from 6.15 to 6.3 million tonnes, which will be significantly lower than the record deliveries of 8.3 million tonnes in the 2024/25 season. In particular, Canada may export the largest volume of canola to the EU in the last 5 years - 1.6 million tonnes due to a more competitive price compared to rapeseed from the EU, while Australia will reduce its deliveries from 3.87 to 2.2 million tonnes due to increased purchases of Australian canola by China. The forecast for Ukrainian rapeseed deliveries has been reduced to 2.2 million tonnes, which will be 0.6 million tonnes lower than the previous season and will be the lowest result since 2021/22 MY.

The 10% export duty introduced in Ukraine on September 4 has practically stopped exports, and farmers are waiting for a solution to the issue of abolishing the duty for agricultural producers, but according to news from the government, a solution will not be available for at least another month. Meanwhile, processors continue to actively buy up free volumes.

Export demand prices for rapeseed in Ukraine remain at $535-550/t (23,000-23,500 UAH/t) with delivery to Black Sea ports, while processors offer 22,000-23,500 UAH/t with delivery to the plant.

China imported 6.4 million tonnes of canola from Canada last year, while Australia exports only 5-5.5 million tonnes of canola, as this year's harvest will be 6.1-6.3 million tonnes. Therefore, Australia will not be able to supply China in full, which will lead to a recovery in demand for Canadian canola and increase uncertainty about supplies to the EU.