Amid frosts in the US, wheat quotes rose by 2-4.9%, which will support prices in Ukraine

Low temperatures and lack of snow cover in most of the plains of the USA are likely to have damaged winter wheat crops. Over the past 3 days, frosts in the USA have reached -20…-22 ^° C, while there was no snow cover in the southwestern regions, which could have negatively affected crops. Although the frosts were short-lived, quotes responded to them by increasing by 3.6-4.9%, although overall prices increased by only 2-2.5% for the week.

March wheat futures rose yesterday:

• by 3.7% to $205.3/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+2.3% per week),
• by 4.9% to $211.5/t – for durum winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+2.7%),
• by 3.6% to $222.1/t - for durum spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+2.5%).
• by 2% to €231.25/t or $240.9/t - for wheat on the Paris Euronext (0%).

Wheat exports from the US for January 10-16 decreased by 12.5% compared to the previous week to 261.8 thousand tons, and in total for the season reached 13.279 million tons, which is 23.8% ahead of last year's pace.

Wheat exports from the EU (as of January 19) amounted to 11.74 million tons, which is 36.5% less than last year.

The new Egyptian agency Mostakbal Misr has purchased a significant amount of Russian wheat for delivery in January-February, but there is no public information about prices and volumes.

Against the backdrop of decreasing export demand, wheat exports from the Russian Federation in January may amount to 2.4 million tons, which will be 1.7 times lower than exports in January 2024 (4.08 million tons) and will be the lowest figure since January 2022, when 1.9 million tons were exported.

In Ukraine, against the backdrop of rising world prices for wheat and limited supply from producers, export demand prices for food wheat increased by 100-150 UAH/t to 10,400-10,600 UAH/t or $218-223/t, and for feed wheat by 100-150 UAH/t to 9,900-10,200 UAH/t or $209-211/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.