Canola and rapeseed prices continue to fall on the world market

The increase in the forecast for global rapeseed production in 2025/26 MY to a record 95.273 million tons (which will exceed the previous season's figure by almost 10 million tons) and the fall in oil and vegetable oil prices continue to put pressure on canola prices in Canada and rapeseed in Paris.

 

January canola futures, after the release of the StatCan report and the USDA balance sheet, have already fallen by 8% since the beginning of December to 597 CAD/t or $433/t (-9.7% per month) against the backdrop of low canola export rates and falling rapeseed oil prices in the US.

 

According to the Canadian Grains Commission (CGC), from August to October 2025, Canada exported only 1.42 million tonnes of canola, half the amount exported in the same period in 2024 (3.03) million tonnes.

 

Uncertainty over the Trump administration's policy to support biofuel production sent soybean oil futures in Chicago down 5.4% for the week, adding to pressure on canola oil prices. U.S. canola oil prices fell 1.5% in November, continuing a multi-month trend seen through the last quarter of 2025.

 

February rapeseed futures in Paris have fallen by 2.6% since the beginning of December to €467/t or $548.5/t (-3.8% month-on-month) under pressure from increased supply from Canada, Australia and local farmers. The rise in the euro against the dollar from 1.16 to 1.175 increases the attractiveness of the European market for rapeseed supplies, but at the same time the price of rapeseed oil from the EU becomes uncompetitive.

 

The price of rapeseed oil in dollars increased by $20-30/t to $1,285-1,290/t FOB Netherlands during the week, which significantly exceeds the prices of Brazilian and American soybean oil, which are $1,090-1,100/t, as well as the prices of Ukrainian sunflower oil, which is traded at $1,230-1,240/t FOB.

 

In Ukraine, export purchase prices for rapeseed have decreased to $535–550/t or UAH 23,500–24,500/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, but the need to form export batches is preventing traders from actively reducing prices.

 

Demand from processors remains low as they actively purchase and process sunflower against the backdrop of active sales and high oil prices, while rapeseed supplies are almost non-existent.

 

In early 2026, the global rapeseed market will continue to be saturated with offers from Australia and the Channel Islands, and in early spring, the supply from EU producers will increase, which will continue to put pressure on quotes. The increase in winter rapeseed sowing areas in the EU for the new crop leaves the production forecast for the new season at this year's level (21.5 million tons), which will further put pressure on prices, unless weather disasters occur in Europe or South America.