The global fertilizer market is entering a period of reduced consumption

The global market is entering a phase of reduced consumption as rising prices begin to negatively impact demand.

According to RaboResearch analysts, some regions are still showing signs of resilience, but the broader trend points to a decline in demand in 2025 and a more pronounced decline in 2026.
It is noted that the analysis of the indices confirms the beginning of a new cycle of decline. This phase closely resembles the previous contraction and indicates that the market is entering a prolonged period of reduced consumption.

Regionally, market dynamics remain volatile. In the US, geopolitical tensions and trade tariffs are expected to disrupt the upcoming season. European prices are likely to rise due to the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). In Brazil, farmers face tight margins and difficult access to credit, although fertilizer supplies could reach record levels in 2025. China prioritizes domestic supplies, while India continues to play a central role in the global urea trade, influencing prices with each new tender.

“Urea consumption is forecast to decline in 2026 after a sharp price increase that has already led to a reduction in demand, especially in Brazil, where farmers are switching to ammonium sulfate. Phosphate prices remain high, so global consumption is expected to fall by 4% in 2025, with a further decline in 2026. Chinese exports have declined, but supplies from Morocco and Saudi Arabia have increased. However, overall trade volumes remain low,” the experts note.

Demand for potash, which recovered in 2024 due to lower prices, is likely to slow again in 2025 amid a new wave of price increases. Brazil’s plans for record imports could partially offset the decline in other regions, but if elevated prices persist, global demand will fall in 2026.