A speculative fall in wheat prices has begun on world stock exchanges, caused by hopes for an end to the war between Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

Speculative swings in wheat quotes continue, and over the past 7 days, European wheat prices in Paris have risen and then fallen by 4.8%, responding to various statements by politicians about a possible reconciliation between the Russian Federation and Ukraine.

Traders hoped that the meeting of the leaders of China, India and Turkey with Putin would give hope for the start of peace talks with Ukraine, because Putin, after meeting with President Xi, stated that "the Russian Federation is on the path to ending the conflict in Ukraine." This phrase was perceived by stock speculators as a signal that negotiations to unblock the Black Sea could really begin. But Putin has already spoken 22 times since the beginning of the war about its possible end, and in the last three days after this statement, Ukrainians have seen a real response - increased shelling of Kyiv, Odessa and other cities.

Over the past week, wheat quotes on world exchanges increased by 4.2-11.2% , but yesterday they fell by 2-4.8%, in particular:

• by 2.6% to $270.4/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 2% to $293.4/t - for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 2.8% to $272.2/t - for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis,
• by 4.8% to €233/t or $270/t for soft wheat on Euronext in Paris.

It should be noted that December futures for American wheat are trading $6-7/t more expensive than September futures, and for European wheat - €15.75/t more expensive, as the market does not expect improved supplies from the Black Sea in the coming months.

Due to the blockade of Black Sea ports and the fall in stock exchange quotes, the demand prices for wheat in Ukraine continue to decline, and in October-November the situation will worsen against the background of an increase in the supply of cheap corn and an increase in the cost of logistics to the ports of Romania and Poland. Therefore, those who are ready to sell wheat need to do so in September or postpone sales to the second half of the season, but it should be borne in mind that prices may collapse significantly due to a sharp increase in supply from Ukraine and the Russian Federation in the event of the resumption of exports from Black Sea ports.