In the wheat market - a speculative decline in quotations amid talks in Turkey
After rising by 4-5% on Monday, wheat prices on world exchanges fell amid a record of traders' profits and expectations of unlocking exports from Ukrainian ports, which will be discussed today by Russia and Turkey without Ukraine's participation.
According to the Foreign Ministry, Ukraine appreciates Turkey's efforts to resolve this issue, although there are currently no agreements between the countries. The UN-sponsored Turkish-Russian plan calls for the demining of the sea near Odessa and guarantees the safe exit of grain ships from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. Turkey is offering assistance in demining and escorting ships, but Ukraine is demanding security guarantees in the form of anti-ship missiles and an international coalition of naval forces that will prevent a Russian sea attack on Mykolayiv and Odessa.
Since the beginning of the war, 90 foreign ships, including 22 Turkish ones, have remained blocked in Ukrainian ports.
Yesterday wheat futures fell:
- 2% or $ 7.8 / t to $ 393.8 / t - July futures for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
- 1.8% or $ 7.62 / t to $ 422.3 / t - July futures for winter winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
- 0.3% or $ 1.2 / t to $ 450.9 / t - September hard spring futures for HRS wheat in Minneapolis,
- 1.2% or $ 5 / t to $ 408.5 / t - July futures for Black Sea wheat in Chicago,
- 3.2% or € 12 / t to € 385.5 / t or $ 412.7 / t - September wheat futures on Paris' Euronext.
In the US, the heat is accelerating the harvest of wheat, but the production forecast remains at 47.1 million tons, which is 2.3 million tons higher than last year's harvest, but 2.1 million tons will be lower than the average 5-year figure. Analysts believe that the June report of the USDA, which will be released on Friday, will increase the final stocks of wheat in 2021/22 MY and 2022/23 MY due to declining exports from major sellers.
In China, as of June 6, wheat has been harvested on 55% of the area, and the harvest will be in line with forecasts.
In Kazakhstan, the UIC estimates the wheat harvest in 2022/23 MY at 13-13.5 million tons, which is slightly higher than last year.
According to ABARE, due to the increase in sown areas from 14 to 14.45 million hectares in Australia, wheat production in 2022/23 MY will reach 30.3 million tons, which will be the 4th largest harvest in the history of observations and 20% higher than the average A 10-year figure, although 6 million tons of wheat exports will be lower than last year.
In Canada, heavy rains are delaying the sowing of spring wheat, and Alberta now has 43% of its area, compared with an average of 67% in five years.
In France, the heat in some places with drought reduces the potential for future harvests of wheat and other cereals.
