Optimism is returning to markets, US stock indexes are rising, and oil prices are falling

During the week, the main US stock indexes rose and almost recovered from last Monday's fall of 5-5.5%. The S&P 500 index closed yesterday at 5,440p, just 4% below July's record high and 24% higher than last year's level. The Dow Jones Industrials closed at 40,000, down 5% from a record high and up 14% from last year. The Nasdaq 100 index closed at 17,200 (-7.5%, +24%). Quotations are supported by positive reports from companies and data on the improvement of the US economy. The US consumer price index report for July came in worse than expected, raising the prospect of a Fed rate cut in September.

During the week of August 3-9, US MBA mortgage applications rose 16.8%, and the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell from 6.55% to 6.54%, a 5-month low.

After a speculative rally fueled by expectations of an Iranian attack on Israel, oil prices began to fall after Israel and Hamas decided to resume talks.

Brent October oil futures fell 3.3% in two sessions (+1.9% for the week, -5.3% for the month), canceling Friday's growth.

Against the background of declining demand for gasoline in the United States, several refineries in the country reduced the volume of oil processing, which increased the pressure on quotations.

Gasoline supplies unexpectedly fell by 2.89 million barrels (against expectations for a 1.4 million barrel decline) to an 8.5-month low, and crude oil inventories rose by 1.36 million barrels, according to the EIA's weekly report. expected their decrease by 2 million barrels. At the same time, crude oil stocks in Cushing (the basis of WTI futures delivery) fell by 1.67 million barrels to a 6-month low, which supported the market.

There have been rumors that Iranian officials have fallen out with their proxy forces in Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis because they are pushing for war against Israel, while Iran's economic situation does not favor an open war.

Over the next few days, it will become clear what decision Israel and Hamas will reach, so tensions in the Middle East may decrease, which will reduce speculative pressure on oil prices.