Speculative soybean prices have begun to rise on the Chicago Stock Exchange, driven by new expectations of renewed Chinese purchases.

Soybean quotes on the Chicago Board of Trade continue to react to rumors about China purchasing a large batch of soybeans from the United States, although official Beijing has not yet confirmed the White House's statement that China has committed to buying 12 million tons of soybeans from the United States by the end of the year, and US Commerce Secretary Bessant has already stated that the purchase could take place by spring next year.

January soybean futures in Chicago fell 1.8% after the USDA report on Friday, but rose 2.9% yesterday to a 1.5-year high of $425/t amid rising US processing volumes and rumors of China purchasing 840,000 tons of US soybeans.

According to the NOPA association, soybean processing in the US in October increased by 15% compared to September to a record level of 227.65 million tons, and soybean oil stocks increased by 5% to 592.5 thousand tons, which is 22% higher than last year.

Against this background, December soybean oil futures in Chicago rose by 1.8% yesterday to $1,125/t (+1% for the week, 0% for the month).

On Monday, some news channels reported that China had purchased at least 14 batches (~840 thousand tons) of American soybeans, but on Monday the US Department of Agriculture reported that previously reported sales of 332 thousand tons to China had been adjusted by minus 100 thousand tons (sell on rumors - buy on facts?).

The export inspection report showed that for the period November 6-13, soybean exports from the United States increased by 4.6% compared to the previous week to 1.176 million tons (which is 48.1% lower than the corresponding figure in 2024), of which Italy purchased 200 thousand tons, Mexico - 197 thousand tons, Egypt - 176.5 thousand tons, China - 0 tons.

Total soybean exports in the 2025/26 MY (September - November 13) reached 10.1 million tons, which is 42.5% higher than the same period last year (the USDA forecast is 44.5 million tons compared to 51 million tons last season).

Prices for soybeans and soybean meal in Brazil are now almost $30-40/t lower than in the US, so information has emerged that China on Friday again bought several batches of Brazilian soybeans for delivery in December.

The window of opportunity for soybean sales from the US to China is November and December, and then the new crop of soybeans from Brazil will appear on the market, and China will be able to continue purchasing cheap oilseeds.

According to AgRural, as of November 13, soybeans in Brazil have been planted at 71% of the planned area (80% last year), but in the main producing state of Mato Grosso, 97% of the area has already been planted (98% last year). The weather in Brazil is now almost ideal for planting - humid with heavy rains, so any speculation about weather factors is postponed to December.

The growth of soybean futures adds dynamics to soybean prices in Ukraine. Thus, the demand prices for GMO soybeans increased by another $3-5/t to $412-415/t or 17,800-17,900 UAH/t, and for non-GMO soybeans - by $5-6/t to $440-450/t or 18,900-19,200 UAH/t with delivery to Black Sea ports. Expensive logistics and restrained sales by farmers support prices, so farmers need to monitor a possible price rollback in Chicago.