Canada's MSG lowered wheat, barley and canola production forecasts, but raised canola stock estimates

In its May Supply and Demand Report, Agriculture and Food Canada (AAFC) released production forecasts for the 2026/27 MY and raised canola stock estimates for the 2025/26 MY and 2026/27 MY.

Wheat production in Canada in the 2026/27 MY is expected to decrease from 40 to 35 million tonnes compared to the previous season, and its exports from 28.8 to 28.55 million tonnes, as a result of which ending stocks will decrease from 7.35 to 5.85 million tonnes.

Barley production will decrease compared to 2025/26 MY by 15.7% to 8.34 million tons, as a result of which its exports will decrease from 3.9 to 2.9 million tons.

It is predicted that despite the increase in sowing areas, canola production in the country will decrease compared to the 2025/26 MY from 21.8 to 19.2 million tons, and export volume will decrease from 8.3 to 7.5 million tons. Domestic processing of canola will increase compared to the previous season from 12.5 to 13.2 million tons due to the development of biodiesel industry capacities, however, even an increase in domestic demand will not compensate for the reduction in exports, therefore the estimate of ending stocks has been increased by 260 thousand tons to 1.319 million tons. This means that a surplus of canola will remain on the market next season.

Due to the low rate of canola exports in the 2025/26 MY, the forecast for end-of-season stocks has also been increased to 2.72 million tons.

At the same time, MSG experts expect an increase in corn production from 14.87 to 15.62 million tons and soybeans from 6.79 to 7.5 million tons.

The area sown to legumes in the 2026/27 MY will decrease significantly due to low prices and changes in crop rotation. Therefore, pea production is expected to decrease compared to the 2025/26 MY from 3.93 to 2.85 million tons, and lentil production from 3.36 to 2.25 million tons.